Unexpected Consequences on Snap Election

Despite she had said nothing about it openly, speculation of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s deliberation on dissolution of the Lower House and having a snap election is bringing some unexpected consequences of parties. Some opposition parties are approaching each other and another one is taking distance from Takaichi administration. Some questions on the option of snap election are raised from her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

After the report of her consideration of an early snap election, Takaichi kept on telling nothing about it. “I have decided nothing,” Takaichi said to one of her allies. However, she told one of LDP leaders that she was considering dissolution of the Lower House at the beginning of coming ordinary session convoked on January 23rd and consequently a general election of the House.

 

The leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Yoshihiko Noda, had a meeting with Chief Representative of Komeito, Tetsuo Saito, in Tokyo on January 12th. Those two leaders agreed on having cooperation each other “at a higher level” in next general election of the Lower House. Noda said to the press after the meeting that Komeito was closest to CDPJ and hoped to make a political group competitive with the LDP.

 

Although Komeito has been keeping its hope to reconstruct electoral cooperation with the LDP, Takaichi’s abrupt leaning on early snap election left the party a few choices to survive the election. “We are going to positively consider Noda’s offer to make a cooperative framework,” said Saito. Komeito possesses around 20 thousand of votes in each single-seat district all around Japan. Electoral cooperation between the CDPJ and Komeito may become a threat to the LDP.

Another opposition party, the Democratic party for the People (DPP) is taking distance from the LDP. The DPP has been keeping close standpoint to the LDP, since Takaichi accepted last December DPP’s request of raising threshold of imposing income tax to annual 1.78 million yen. While the DPP supposedly considered joining the leading coalition with electoral cooperation with the LDP, Takaichi’s early snap election crushed DPP’s hope.

 

“It has to be called ‘dissolution leaving economy behind,’ if FY2026 budget bill is not pass within current fiscal year,” said Tamaki, reminding of his agreement with Takaichi last December to pass the bill by the end of March. Tamaki indicated that his party would reconsider supportive position to the bill, if Takaichi does not keep the promise. The CDPJ hopes the DPP to join their cooperative framework against the LDP.

 

Even some LDP lawmakers are frustrated with Takaichi’s unilateral decision on dissolution of the Lower House. Takaichi’s early snap election may contradict her stance to work for the people to realize benefit of her economic policy by delivering economic stimulus plan included in FY2026 budget. Although Takaichi keeps high approval rate, the support for the LDP is still in a low level.

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