Estimation of Deaths in Earthquake beneath the Capital Declines

A working group of National Disaster Management Council released in December 2025 a report on possible major earthquake occurring right under the capital area of Japan. It anticipates 18 thousand people will die in fallen buildings or fire, which was reduced from the previous report in 2013. However, a great earthquake in Tokyo still causes a great number of deaths and damages of buildings in the city with highly dense population.

The estimation of damages was made with a condition in which an earthquake with 7th degree occurs in southern area of metropolitan Tokyo in a winter evening, when wind with 8 kilometers per hour is blowing. This great earthquake kills 6 thousand people under broken houses and buildings and 12 thousand people with fire caused by the quake. Broken houses and buildings amount to 400 thousand, out of which 130 thousand fall with quake and 270 thousand are burnt down. Damage from fire will be greater than that of quake itself.

 

The number has gotten smaller than the estimate of previous report in 2013. The 2013 report predicted 23 thousand of deaths and 610 thousand of houses or buildings being lost. While the quake was supposed to collapse 198 thousand of houses and buildings causing 7 thousand of deaths, fire started from kitchen of houses or electrical short in the buildings was estimated to burn 412 thousand of houses and buildings down with 16 thousand of deaths.

 

Newly estimated damage has been shrunk from the 2013 report. Current report counted on some preventive measures by cities in Tokyo and its suburbs. To prevent damages from fire, the cities reduced area with dangerously dense houses or broaden roads to take distance between houses. While they reinforced houses and buildings to prevent falling down with quakes, the cities encouraged the residents to settle equipment to shut down electricity of supply of gas immediately after it detected major earthquake.

 

Tokyo experienced a great earthquake in September 1923. Ninety percent of 100 thousand deaths were caused by fire on the wooden houses that surrounded them in the city. Tokyo has been known as a city with frequent fires in the winter, since the time when Tokyo was called Edo in the 19th century. Fast and dry wind quickly spread the fire from houses to houses. The worst timing for the people in Tokyo to have a great earthquake is thus in the evening of winter. Evacuation in the evening makes people unsafe.

 

The government of Japan estimates that likeliness of a great earthquake with magnitude 7 hitting Tokyo and its suburbs within next 30 years should be 70 percent. Even though the estimated damage was made smaller than twelve years ago, the number of possible deaths is greater than that in East Japan Great Earthquake in 2011, which caused 16 thousand of deaths.

 

It is unlikely that the estimated damage will drastically be reduced, as far as the government is failing in mitigating demographic concentration to Tokyo. As far as the government concentrates its function to Tokyo, the people may not leave the capital of Japan.

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