Opposition Fragmentation

In the time of ailing government without majority in a chamber of the Diet, the opposition parties cannot show a sense of solidarity to present voters alternative choices to the leading coalition. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) has not exercised its leadership to integrate opposition powers, only to evenmtually lose public support for the party. A structure of one giant surrounded by some fragmented parties does not seem to be changing in 2026.

The leader of CDPJ, Yoshihiko Noda, stressed his stance of challenging the leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan Innovation Party (JIP) in his first press conference of the year on January 4th, right after visiting Ise Shrine. “It is an important role for the biggest opposition party to make a difference from Sanae Takaichi administration,” said Noda, criticizing Takaichi’s draft of FY2026 budget bill of its size over 120 trillion yen.

 

In another press conference in Ise on the same day, the leader of Democratic Party for the People, Yuichiro Tamaki, supported draft of FY2026 budget bill, positively evaluating it as including investments on growing industries. As one of the opposition leaders, however, Tamaki has been supportive for Takaichi administration, since DPP’s policy of income tax cut policy was accepted by Takaichi last month.

 

The CDPJ possesses 148 seats in the Lower House and 42 in the Upper House, while the DPP has 27 and 25. Nevertheless, recent polls showed higher approval rate for the DPP than for the CDPJ. Noda realizes head winds against the CDPJ, citing cynical expressions about party leaders on the webpages that included “the leader for tax hike,” “pro-China supreme advisor” and “secretary general with bad behavior.”

 

The CDPJ expects cooperation with Komeito, which departed leading coalition with the LDP in October. In terms of liberal policies such as introduction of separate surname system or careful attitude toward constitutional amendment, the CDPJ is closer to Komeito than to JIP which left the community of opposition parties. The CDPJ considers not fielding its own candidate to District 3 of Hiroshima of Lower House in which Komeito’s Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito keeps the seat.

 

To defeat LDP candidates in single-seat districts, the opposition parties need to build a cooperative framework to integrate candidate in each district. The CDPJ is far from exercising its leadership to discuss integration of opposition candidates for next Lower House election. Although Noda hopes to prepare for a snap election this year, there is no viable election strategy proposed by the CDPJ.

 

Noda announced last month that his party would not submit a non-confidential resolution against Prime Minister Takaichi. That demonstrated CDPJ’s hesitance to replace the LDP as the leader of politics in Japan. For other opposition parties, it seemed to be easier to  implement their policies through approaching the LDP than to remain in the opposition community which has no viable vision to take hegemony.

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