Estimations of Majority by LDP

Newspapers revealed their early estimation of campaign for the Lower House election on February 8th. All of three researches by Mainichi, Yomiuri and Nikkei predicted that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) would be reaching a simple majority by itself, catching a wind for Sanae Takaichi Cabinet. The Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) has not seen a positive consequence of integration by Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and Komeito.

 

Those researches were based on their own survey for 289 single-seat districts and 176 seats in proportional districts. Voters will vote for an individual candidate in each of their local district and for a party which had offered its own slate of candidates. Seats in proportional district will be distributed to parties based on the votes they obtained in ten blocks in the election.

 

Mainichi Shimbun reported that the LDP may increase its seat, currently 196, to the close level of a simple majority which is 233. The LDP leads other parties in half of 289 single-seat districts all over Japan. It is possible that the party will occupy all the seats in rural prefectures of Yamagata, Toyama, Tokushima, Yamaguchi and Kumamoto. It also is advancing urban districts in Tokyo and Chiba. LDP seats for proportional district will also increase significantly from 59 in previous election in 2024.

 

It is unsure that LDP’s coalition partner, Japan Innovation Party, will keep its 34 seats in the House. As coalition partners each other, the LDP and JIP competes in 86 single-seat districts. The CRA has not secured advantage of integration of two parties. Komeito’s main supporter, Soka Gakkai, has not been constructed unified campaign for supporting CRA candidates in single-seat districts. While Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Sanseito can keep or increase their current seats, Japan Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi may be shrinking.

 

The LDP also is expected to be leading in half of single-seat districts in the survey of Yomiuri Shimbun. The CRA will not reach 64 seats, which are gained by the CDPJ and Komeito in last election in 2024. Sanseito is going to increase its seats in proportional district, even though it may not win any single-seat district. The DPP will be maintaining current 27 seats.

 

Nikkei Shimbun also expected that the LDP will achieve a simple majority without help of JIP. While half of 289 single-seat districts are in a toss-up, the LDP is leading in 40 percent of districts. The paper predicted that the LDP has a good chance to achieve 243 seats of “stable majority,” in which the party can occupy all the chair of standing committee of the Lower House. The CRA may reduce its seats.

 

Takaichi has set a goal of this election at a simple majority by the leading coalition. However, if the LDP occupies the majority by itself, it no longer really needs support of JIP. It is possible that skepticisms on current coalition may rise in both the LDP and JIP after the election.

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