Takaichi’s Problems in 2026

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi leads a minority government in one of two chambers of the Diet in 2026. It is a focal point in politics in Japan whether her administration can achieve majority in both houses this year. As bilateral relations with China are getting further worse after she made a comment on Taiwan contingency, Takaichi will face a requirement how she can fix the problem. 

Takaichi’s biggest mistake as an elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last October was letting its coalition partner go. The LDP established a coalition framework with Komeito, with catalysis of the Liberal Party, in 1999 when the party lost majority in the Upper House. Takaichi took the long-time support from Komeito for granted, as she sought a greater coalition with participation of other parties.

 

Although Takaichi was successful in pulling Japan Innovation Party in the leading coalition, her administration is still unstable with minority in the Upper House. Next election of the house will be held in 2028, which means that the LDP has no chance to obtain a majority in the House until then. So, Takaichi hopes to expand the framework of leading coalition. Her target is supposed to be the Democratic Party for the People (DPP).

 

The DPP agreed with the LDP on raising threshold of imposing income tax to 1.78 million yen of annual income. The DPP recognized that an obstruction for them to join the coalition was cleared. However, the DPP still has some problem to it. Japan Trade Union Confederation basically opposes the DPP’s participation in the coalition, because the organization will be divided between supporters of the DPP and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

 

Another problem is the fact that the DPP candidate will need to compete with the LDP candidates in single-seat districts in next Lower House election, if current election system is unchanged. The DPP has requested introduction of multi-seat districts in which both candidates of DPP and LDP can win the election. The LDP is highly reluctant to accept DPP’s request.

 

As long as Takaichi administration is not successful in securing majority in both chambers, the politics in Japan will be unstable with policy discussion between leading and opposition parties in 2026.

 

Another instability Takaichi embraces is deterioration of bilateral relations with China. China has been putting economic pressure by banning import of Japanese goods. Since Takaichi unintendedly referred to possibility for Japan to use force in case China use its force around Taiwan, China keeps on denounce Japan as demonstrating militarism in the time of the World War II.

 

Being afraid of criticisms from conservative groups, Takaichi refused to accept China’s request to retract her words. Trade with China and Chinese visitor to Japan are shrinking as China reduces its economic ties with Japan. China made a major military exercise around Taiwan at the end of 2025. It is a question whether Takaichi can implement her policy goal of “strong economy” without any improvement of bilateral relations with China.

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