Consideration of Early Snap Election

A possibility of early snap election was suddenly appeared in political speculations. Yomiuri Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun reported on January 10th that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was considering dissolution of the House of Representatives at the beginning of coming ordinary session of the Diet on January 23rd. In case she calls the dissolution on the day, the election is going to be on February 8th or 15th. Takaichi will still consider merit and demerit of early snap election before her decision.

According Yomiuri’s report, the main reason why Takaichi considered a snap election was high approval rate. She keeps 70 percent of approval rate in its polls since she took the office last October. There are some arguments among the people in her administration that she should call a snap election before the rate declines during discussions in the ordinary session of the Diet.

 

Although Takaichi went through an extraordinary session of the Diet last fall, given relatively loose coalition with Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and JIP still do not have majority in the Upper House. Some leaders in the LDP hope to reach the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) to reinforce the coalition.

 

Takaichi’s best scenario for the snap election’s result is obtaining sweeping victory with simple majority in the Lower House only by the LDP. It requires additional 33 seats on current 199 in the House. Although Takaichi Cabinet enjoys high approval rate, the LDP still in low around 30 percent in the polls. Even if the LDP secures a majority in the Lower House in the election, it still in short of majority in the Upper House. Takaichi needs cooperation from other party.

 

The hardest reality for an early snap election in February is that the administration needs to pass FY2025 main budget bill in the Diet by the end of March. The Constitution of Japan provides that a budget bill needs to be submitted to the Lower House before the Upper House discusses it. If Takaichi calls dissolution of the Lower House in January 23rd, the budget bill cannot be discussed until the snap election finishes. The time for discussing the budget bill will extremely be limited.

 

If the LDP achieves a sweeping victory, the leading party may push the bill on a fast track. But if it loses, the procedure in the Diet will fundamentally be disturbed. In this case, it is possible for Takaichi administration to significantly slows down after the snap election. It is fair to say that her decision for early dissolution and a snap election is close to a gambling choice.

 

After careless comment on Taiwan contingency in November, bilateral relations between Japan and China are getting worse. It is unpredictable whether China’s economic and security pressure on Japan will work for additional support to Takaichi administration or for disappointment to her handlings of foreign affairs. There is no precedent of calling a dissolution at the beginning of ordinary session of the Diet except one in 1966.

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