Takaichi Announces Dissolution of Lower House and a Snap Election

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on January 19th that she would dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23rd, the first day of 2026 ordinary session of the Diet. The election to fulfill vacancy of the House will be officially announced on January 27th and voted on February 8th. Takaichi set a line for victory at a simple majority – 233 seats out of all 465 in the Lower House -- by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Japan Innovation Party (JIP).

In her press conference, Takaichi explained the reason why she decided a snap election in this month. “My cabinet grapples with totally new economic and fiscal policies and important issues that construct a basis of our nation. I ask the people an endorsement for me and new coalition with JIP,” said Takaichi. Although it is always true for any prime minister, she would bet her premiership on winning in the coming election of the Lower House.

 

A prime minister does not need to call a snap election to exercise her/his own agenda. Policies of an administration are always important for the nation. Her explanation did not make sense. Takaichi simply wanted a firm endorsement for her administration, which was suffering from lack of majority in the Diet, while approval rate for her cabinet was marking a certain high. “Do you love me, or someone else?” was her implied message to the voters.

 

Article 7 of the Constitution of Japan gives cabinet, which is led by a prime minister, power to advice and approve to Emperor’s acts in matters of state, including dissolution of the Lower House. The provision has been interpreted as giving power of counteraction of cabinet against the Diet which has power to elect a prime minister. Another opportunity for a cabinet to dissolve the house is when non-confidence resolution against the cabinet is approved, based on Article 69.

 

However, Article 7 was reinterpreted that the prime minister would have discretional power to dissolve the house any time he/she likes, since Jun-ichiro Koizumi exercised that power to implement his policy of postal privatization, that was rejected in the Upper House in 2005. Takaichi dissolves the Lower House only fifteen months after last election. Some lawmakers argue that her decision is an abuse of prime minister’s power.

 

There are some speculations about the background of her decision. One is failure in inviting the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) in the leading coalition. Although the DPP took one step forward to join the coalition when Takaichi approved DPP’s tax reduction policy in last month, a major supporter of DPP, Japanese Trade Union Confederation, opposed the idea. Takaichi must have been disappointed to it.

 

Another possible element is China’s consecutive pressure to Japan in trade or security policies. Since Takaichi made unusual comment on Taiwan contingency in November, China resumed ban on importing Japan’s sea products and laid stricter regulation on dual-use products to Japan, possibly including rare earths. Some suppose that Takaichi made her decision before those measures of China affects Japan’s economy.

 

Some possible scandals might have an impact on her decision. Takaichi is known as having kept relationship with former Unification Church. It is supposed that public criticisms against the organization will rise, when a district court will give sentence to the defendant, who shot former prime minister Shinzo Abe to death, later this month. The coalition partner, JIP, also has some local lawmakers who falsely managed their payment for health insurance.

 

It is not true that all the people who watched prime minister’s press conference are confident that Takaichi called the dissolution and a snap election with genuine motivation for making people’s life better. A common label for the snap election is one for her political survival.

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