Unprecedented Hung Parliament

As a result of general election of the House of Representatives, the Liberal Democratic Party faces unprecedented situation of instability. While there are some examples of hung parliaments in the past, the LDP came through by including independent lawmakers or building a coalition. Now, the LDP lost its majority, and still is the biggest in the House. The party does not have any hope to secure majority.

After establishment in 1955, the LDP has been keeping its majority in the House for two decades. When it lost its majority in 1976, 1979 and 1983, the LDP could maintain its administration by inviting some independent lawmakers to the party or by forming a coalition with small party. After building a coalition with Komeito in 1999, the LDP has been handling administration, except the period of leadership by Democratic Party of Japan.

 

The LDP-Komeito coalition now has 215 seats. It needs 18 more seats to reach a majority, which is 233. Among 12 independents, the LDP can expect help of 5 or 6 conservative-leaning lawmakers, still fallen short of majority. No opposition party is expectable as a coalition partner so far. As long as it is about the House of Councillors, the problem is only about bills to pass. Now, this is the House of Representatives which has power to nominate a prime minister, or to pass a non-confidential resolution.

 

Making the situation complicate, the opposition parties also do not have a majority. The sum of Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP: 148 seats), Japan Innovation Party (Ishin: 38 seats) and Democratic Party for the People (DPP: 28 seats) is 216. If Reiwa Shinsengumi (9 seats) and Japan Communist Party (8 seats) join them, they can have the seats beyond majority. But cooperation between conservative Ishin and leftist JCP is nearly impossible. This is a highly rare situation of hung parliament in Japan.

 

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba exchanged renewed policy agreement with Komeito on the day after the election. In his press conference on October 28, Ishiba expected cooperation of some opposition parties, referring to the importance of “an attitude of cooperating each other for the people.”

 

However, cooperation with the LDP means losing momentum for the next election of the House of Councillors next summer. The leader of DPP, Yuichiro Tamaki, explicitly denied the possibility of joining coalition with the LDP and Komeito. “If they have good policy, we will help them, and we will say bad is bad,” told Tamaki to the reporters.

 

The leader of CDP, Yoshihiko Noda, expects cooperation with three other parties, Ishin, DPP and JCP, that voted “yes” to a non-confident resolution against the prime minister in last session of the Diet. But, they are not excited with the invitation of Noda.

 

There is a discussion in Ishin on responsibility of its leader, Nobuyuki Baba, of losing six seats in the election. The members of Ishin are more serious about having a leader’s election than participation in a coalition.

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