LDP and Komeito Likely to Maintain Their Coalition

Polls indicate that the coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito is going to secure simple majority, 233 seats, in the general election of the House of Representatives on October 27th. However, it is possible that the LDP will lose its majority by itself, caused by public criticisms on the candidates involved in the slush fund scandal. The administration led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will be unable to achieve a momentum for strongly pushing its policies forward after the election.

The poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun on October 15th and 16th predicted that the coalition would obtain more than 233 seats, but both the LDP and Komeito would reduce its seats from what they had at the proclamation of the election on October 15th.

 

The LDP fielded 266 candidates in 289 single-seat constituencies. About 100 out of those 266 are leading other candidates of opposition parties, while 40 are left behind. About 120 candidates are in head-to-head race in each constituency. Komeito has only two candidates out of 11 in single-seat constituencies, who are leading.

 

The LDP is likely to reduce the seats in proportional representatives, in which it achieved 72 in last general election in 2021. Komeito also is reducing its seats in proportional representatives from 23 in last election.

 

The top opposition party, Constitutional Democratic Party, is likely to add 30 seats to current 98 in single-seat constituencies. Among 207 CDP candidates fielded in single-seat constituencies, about 30 are leading others, while about 100 are in head-to-head. It is likely that the CDP is going to add seats in proportional representatives to 39 seats in last general election in three years ago.

 

It is only the CDP that is supposed to add certain number of seats among the opposition parties. Japan Innovation Party, or Nippon Ishin-no Kai, is predicted to reduce its seats from current 44. Although Ishin has stronghold in Osaka and its periphery, it has not extended its power to other regions in Japan. The Democratic Party for the People may add a few seats, and Japan Communist Party will obtain no significant change in seats.

 

The other polls by Mainichi Shimbun, Nikkei Shimbun and Kyodo News made no big difference from the result of Yomiuripoll. A conclusion drawn from those polls is that LDP-Komeito coalition will maintain its joint administration and Ishiba Cabinet will continue to lead the government, because he defined the victory of this election as securing simple majority of the coalition.


Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down to reduce the loss of LDP seats in the general election. Considering strong criticism on his handling of the slush fund scandal, Kishida might have imposed greater damage on the LDP in the election, if he had stayed as the prime minister. However, if Ishiba loses unexpectedly greater number of seats in election, it may cause some moves in the LDP to replace Ishiba before the election of House of Councillors next summer.

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