Leading Coalition Possibly Loses Majority

Entering the last week of campaign for general election of the House of Representatives, estimation for the Liberal Democratic Party to achieve a victory is shrinking as voters show low expectation on measures to regulate political funds, or on economic policy of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. It became unpredictable whether the leading coalition of LDP and Komeito can maintain their administration with majority in the House. 

Asahi Shimbun reported on October 21st that it would be unclear whether the coalition can reach 233 seats of the simple majority in the election. It predicted that the LDP would reduce its seats by 50 seats from 247 at the time of proclamation of the election on October 15th, unable to maintain its stand-alone majority. It will be the first time, if any, for LDP to lose stand-alone majority since 2009, when the party gave its administration over to the Democratic Party of Japan.

 

The Constitutional Democratic Party is predicted to significantly increase its seats. According to analysis of Asahi, the opposition parties can gain about 100 seats in single-seat constituencies, even if they failed in fielding integrated candidate in each district. The opposition parties, namely CDP, enjoys following wind which is blowing against the LDP unpopular with the slush fund scandal.

 

The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi is also likely to add some seats, while Japan Communist Party sees no big change. One thing memorable is that Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) is supposed to reduce its seats outstandingly, in spite of advantage for the opposition parties. Asahi estimates that Ishin will lose 6 seats from 44 to 38, which marks 14 percent of loss.

 

The estimation of Kyodo News also indicated negative result against the LDP. While Kyodo poll showed “unpredictability” of LDP’s stand-alone majority five days before, the new poll found “possibility” of LDP’s dropping out of simple majority. It revealed that CDP projects gaining 100 seats in single-seat constituencies.

 

In the poll of Asahi, 54 percent of responders answered that they would think the secret fund scandal as important when they would vote, while 38 percent would not think so. It is assumed that only one half of 46 candidates who were involved in the scandal would be winning the election.

 

Although Ishiba announced his plan to deliver economic stimulus package right after the election, 53 percent expressed that they did not expect Ishiba’s economic policies in Asahi’s poll. Ishiba LDP has not gained a momentum in the top issue for the ordinary voters. 30 percent of LDP supporters are not confident in LDP economic policies, which ratio was higher than supporters of CDP, Ishin or DPP, indicating weak support from LDP loyalists.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Amendment of Local Autonomy Law

The House of Representatives started discussion on revision of the Local Autonomy Law, which would vest the national government a power to instruct local government in an emergency. It may change the relationship between the national and local government, which has been recognized as equal. The opposition parties oppose the amendment, arguing that it would give the national government an excessive power.   With the Meiji Restoration, the national government abolished the feudal system, introducing modern governance. However, its autonomy was not sufficient. The governor of each prefecture was appointed by the national government. The local governments subordinated to the national government. It was as late as 2000 when  the Comprehensive Decentralization Law  was enacted and the relationship between the national and local government was defined as equal.   The national government found inconvenience in the relationship between the national and local government, when COVID-19 was preval
Read more

Request for Final Nuclear Disposal Site

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry requested Genkai Town, Saga, to accept “literature survey” for building a final disposal site for high-level radioactive waste. Genkai is going to answer within this month. If it accepts, it will be the third place to accept that survey, following two places in Hokkaido. Main reason to accept the survey is supposed to be subsidy from the national government.   Japan has no final disposal site. Among all 54 reactors in 17 nuclear power generation plant, 12 reactors of 6 plants are operating. The rest of them are not in operation, some of which are determined to be decommissioned. Used nuclear fuels are stocked in each plant, 　 or have sent to a reprocessing plant in Rokkasho, Aomori. There are two plans to stock nuclear wastes in the intermediate facility for disposal, one is already built and another is still in negotiation.   Nuclear Fuel Final Disposal Act in 2000 determines to bury nuclear waste in the underground. Literature survey, which is
Read more

Death Penalty Demanded on Criminal of Arson

On the historically brutal case of arson, the public prosecutors demanded an ultimate penalty to the offender. In the trial on the arson and murder in Kyoto Animation in 2019, the prosecutors requested death penalty on the defendant, Shinji Aoba. The lawyers of Aoba argued that the court should avoid sentencing death penalty. The judgement will be passed next January. Aoba was indicted as putting fire after pouring gasoline in the building of Kyoto Animation (Kyoani), a studio producing animation works, and killed 36 staffs and injured 32 on July 18 th , 2019. In the trial, Aoba argued that he could not tolerate Kyoani, because it had stolen his novel story in its works. Aoba later apologized to the victim’s families that he had done too much and regretted it.   In the closing argument in Kyoto Regional Court, the prosecutors demanded death penalty for Aoba, because the number of victims were extremely high in the history of criminal trials in Japan. “It is hard to describe about how t
Read more