Leading Coalition Possibly Loses Majority

Entering the last week of campaign for general election of the House of Representatives, estimation for the Liberal Democratic Party to achieve a victory is shrinking as voters show low expectation on measures to regulate political funds, or on economic policy of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. It became unpredictable whether the leading coalition of LDP and Komeito can maintain their administration with majority in the House. 

Asahi Shimbun reported on October 21st that it would be unclear whether the coalition can reach 233 seats of the simple majority in the election. It predicted that the LDP would reduce its seats by 50 seats from 247 at the time of proclamation of the election on October 15th, unable to maintain its stand-alone majority. It will be the first time, if any, for LDP to lose stand-alone majority since 2009, when the party gave its administration over to the Democratic Party of Japan.

 

The Constitutional Democratic Party is predicted to significantly increase its seats. According to analysis of Asahi, the opposition parties can gain about 100 seats in single-seat constituencies, even if they failed in fielding integrated candidate in each district. The opposition parties, namely CDP, enjoys following wind which is blowing against the LDP unpopular with the slush fund scandal.

 

The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi is also likely to add some seats, while Japan Communist Party sees no big change. One thing memorable is that Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) is supposed to reduce its seats outstandingly, in spite of advantage for the opposition parties. Asahi estimates that Ishin will lose 6 seats from 44 to 38, which marks 14 percent of loss.

 

The estimation of Kyodo News also indicated negative result against the LDP. While Kyodo poll showed “unpredictability” of LDP’s stand-alone majority five days before, the new poll found “possibility” of LDP’s dropping out of simple majority. It revealed that CDP projects gaining 100 seats in single-seat constituencies.

 

In the poll of Asahi, 54 percent of responders answered that they would think the secret fund scandal as important when they would vote, while 38 percent would not think so. It is assumed that only one half of 46 candidates who were involved in the scandal would be winning the election.

 

Although Ishiba announced his plan to deliver economic stimulus package right after the election, 53 percent expressed that they did not expect Ishiba’s economic policies in Asahi’s poll. Ishiba LDP has not gained a momentum in the top issue for the ordinary voters. 30 percent of LDP supporters are not confident in LDP economic policies, which ratio was higher than supporters of CDP, Ishin or DPP, indicating weak support from LDP loyalists.

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