LDP-Komeito Coalition Lost Its Majority

Leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lost its majority in general election of the House of Representatives voted on October 27. The coalition needs to add some lawmakers to the framework of cooperation over policies. However, the opposition parties are too fragmented to build a new coalition against the LDP and Komeito. Choice for new administration is open.

The House has 465 seats, and the majority needs 233. Compared to the situation before the election, the LDP lost its 56 seats, from 247 to 191. Komeito lost 6 seats, from 32 to 24. The total seats of those two parties are 215, 18 seats short of majority.

 

The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) gained 148 seats, adding 50 to the seats before the election. Democratic Party for the People (DPP) quadrupled its seats to 28, as Reiwa Shinsengumi tripled to 9. Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) reduced 6 seats, from 44 to 38. Japan Communist Party (JCP) reduced 2 seats, from 10 to 8.

 

The biggest reason of LDP’s decline was its reluctance to political reform. In spite of public concern on the slush fund scandal, the LDP has made slow progress to take distance from obsolete management of political fund, which was shown in distribution of 20 million yen to their candidates, including independent candidates who had been excluded from LDP slate.

 

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba did not exercise his leadership to reform his party. He decided this early snap election against his promise for policy discussion in the Diet. He included 34 candidates in LDP slate, who had accepted secret fund from factions. However, over the half of candidates who had been involved in the slush fund scandal resulted in losing their seats.

 

Facing public criticisms on the scandal, Ministers of Justice, Hideki Makihara, and Minister of Agriculture, Yasuhiro Ozato, lost their seats in the House. The chief representatives of Komeito, Keiichi Ishii, also lost his seat.

 

Traditional heavyweights of the LDP, such as Hakubun Shimomura, Akira Amari or Seishiro Eto, could not win. The power of former Abe faction, the basis of conservatism in the party, was significantly eroded by the defeat of its members, including Tamayo Marukawa in Tokyo.

 

According to the Constitution, a Diet session will be convoked within thirty days, and the Cabinet will resign en masse. Then, each House has election to nominate new prime minister. Decision of the Lower House superiors to that of the Upper House.

 

Ishiba will be reelected, if the coalition has a majority. But, LDP-Komeito coalition no longer has it. If no candidate reaches a majority, the election will go to a run-off which does not require majority.

 

In the case of run-off between Ishiba and CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, Ishiba is supposed to win, because the opposition parties are not united to vote for Noda.

 

Once the coalition loses its majority, no bill submitted by the cabinet can pass the Diet. So, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba needs to pull seats together to secure majority. It is likely that some independent lawmakers who were dropped from LDP slate will return to the LDP, but it is not enough.

 

Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Ishiba indicated to his aids his idea to seek cooperation from DPP. Although DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki once said that DPP would not seek coalition with LDP and Komeito, the party will cooperate with any party to implement their policies.

 

There are some patters of cooperation: joining cabinet as minister or sharing agreement over some basic policies without sending minister to the cabinet. The LDP once in the past invited some lawmakers of the opposition parties to join them to secure majority.

 

Noda also is hoping to build a coalition of the opposition parties. While total sum of seats of CDP, DPP, Ishin still does not reach a majority in the House, certain number of lawmakers in the opposition parties can have some impact on the policies such as political reform or economic policies.