Starting with Low Approval Rate

Shigeru Ishiba Cabinet embarked on with low approval rate, according to polls of news organizations. Approve for Ishiba Cabinet was in the range of upper forties and lower fifties in percentage, while disapproval was in thirties. After the presidential election with unprecedented nine candidates, support for the Liberal Democratic Party was apparently raised, giving the party a sense of confidence for coming general election of the House of Representatives.

In the poll of Yomiuri Shimbun conducted on October 1 and 2, Ishiba Cabinet achieved 51 percent of approval and 32 percent of disapproval. In the last poll in mid-September, the approval rate for Kishida Cabinet was 25 percent and disapproval 63 percent. The approval for current cabinet doubled by replacing Kishida to Ishiba, and disapproval was halved. It is likely that Kishida’s decision to stand down as prime minister was correct for saving public support for LDP administration.

 

However, compared to former prime ministers right after their starting point, Ishiba’s approval was not comfortably high. Koizumi Cabinet marked 87 percent in 2001, while 2nd Abe Cabinet in 2012 and Suga Cabinet in 2020 had 70s n percentage. Even Kishida’s rate, 56 percent in 2021, was higher than Ishiba now.

 

The poll of Asahi Shimbun was resulted in 46 percent of approval and 30 percent of disapproval. Disapproval of male, 37 percent, exceeded female’s 24 percent. Approval of young generation was generally low, marking 33 percent among agers between 18 and 29, and 34 percent among 40s. Approval and disapproval among independent voters was mostly at the same level, 35 percent and 32.

 

Approval and disapproval in Nikkei Shimbun were 51 percent and 37 percent, while Kyodo News Agency showed 50.7 percent and 28.9 percent.

 

Ishiba changed his course from a snap election after detailed policy discussion with the opposition parties in the Diet to an early one with advices of LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama and other party leaders. It indicated unsolid political ground of Ishiba in his administration. It is likely that the recipients of polls were disappointed by weak leadership of Ishiba.

 

In the Yomiuri poll, the biggest reason for supporting Ishiba was that there would be no other appropriate person (37 percent). In Nikkei’s, 51 percent of approvers evaluated Ishiba’s moderate personality. Expectation to policies was not high, supposedly because some of his policies were seen as not easy to be implemented.

 

In the Yomiuri poll, supporting rate for LDP rose by 7 percentage points to 38 percent. Constitutional Democratic Party enjoyed only 2 percentage point of rise at 7 percent, although it elected new leader, Yoshihiko Noda, four days before LDP presidential election. Others did not show any obvious hike. The winner of pre-election race among the parties might be the LDP.

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