Takaichi Gets Closer to Prime Minister

The Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) reached a basic agreement in policies that Ishin hopes to implement through bilateral cooperation with the LDP. Although it had been pushing some policies which the LDP seemed to be hard to accept, Ishin suddenly changed the condition for cooperation with the LDP. Consequently, the President of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Sanae Takaichi, is likely to be elected the prime minister with support from LDP and Ishin. 

When the two parties started policy talk on October 16th, Ishin raised 12 policies to be implemented when Ishin would cooperate with the LDP, which meant voting for Takaichi in the Diet for prime minister and possibly formulating a leading coalition with Takaichi administration. Those policies included zero percent of consumption tax, reduction of payment of working agers for social insurance, amendment of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan or prohibition of political donation from companies and organizations. Those two parties did not agree on at least social insurance and donation.

 

However, the leader of Ishin, Hirofumi Yoshimura, abruptly announced in a TV program at the night of October 16th that Ishin would not join the coalition with the LDP unless the LDP would agree on certain volume of reduction of Diet members. Although some leaders in the LDP expressed their surprise on Ishin’s unilateral proposal, the LDP leaders headed by Takaichi decided to consider accepting Yoshimura’s request.

 

The policy talk by those two parties made extremely fast progress. Ishin explained that it was not realistic that all the twelve policies would be implemented immediately. The LDP and Ishin reached a basic agreement in the policy talk on October 17th. Ishin announced its intention to leave trilateral discussion with other two opposition parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), over who they would vote for the election of prime minister. DPP refused further discussion with CDPJ.

 

The election of next prime minister will be taken place on October 21st. The LDP has 196 seats in the House of Representatives and Ishin has 35. If all the lawmakers in those two parties vote for Takaichi in the election, she will obtain 231 votes, two votes short of a simple majority. The LDP approaches other opposition parties to fulfill the majority. Even if Takaichi will not get a majority, it is likely that she will win the election for next prime minister in the run-off election, because the opposition parties are unlikely to vote for a candidate who overcomes Takaichi.

 

One thing notable is that some members in the LDP and Ishin are frustrated with highly rapid progress of their policy talk. The discussion was too focused on electing Takaichi for next prime minister to examine details of policies they will share in the framework of cooperation in the Diet. So, there is an argument in both parties that Ishin should not join the leading coalition with appointment of Ishin lawmaker to some position of the cabinet led by LDP prime minister.

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