JIP’s Weak Presence in Coalition

Japan Innovation Party (JIP), junior coalition partner of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), embraces a concern of how to keep its presence in the scene of Japanese politics. LDP Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi did not mention reduction of Diet seats in her first policy speech in current Diet session. JIP cannot be sure whether the coalition with the LDP will bring a victory in next national election. 

In her speech to the Diet, Takaichi promised that she would reduce payment of the people in working age. “We will promote discussion on issues that require immediate measures,” said Takaichi. It was still unclear which would need “immediate measures” and which could be left behind. It is up to the prime minister which policy will be picked. It is highly unclear when JIP’s policies will be implemented.

 

Takaichi dropped reduction of Diet seats from her policy speech. The leader of JIP, Hirofumi Yoshimura, labeled the issue as “absolute condition” for forming a coalition with the LDP. Takaichi ignored JIP’s most important issue in her policy speech. She also failed in addressing the issue of political reform, especially prohibition of donations from companies and organizations.

 

Her policy speech showed how JIP could have impact on LDP leadership. Takaichi explained that coalition with JIP would work for building stable government for promoting domestic and foreign policies. However, the indifference to JIP policies may indicate that Takaichi’s earnest discussion with JIP might have been made solely for winning the election of naming prime minister in both Houses of the Diet.

 

Serious problem of the coalition is how they coordinate fielding their candidates in the national election. In last election of the House of Representatives in 2024, the LDP fielded 266 candidates in 289 single-seat districts. JIP raised 163 candidates. The LDP and JIP competed each other in 145 districts. Both parties have not discussed which candidate will be fielded in which district, as LDP and Komeito have agreed in the past elections.

 

JIP took all nineteen single-seat districts of Osaka in last Lower House election. LDP could not win in any of those districts. It must be hard for JIP to hand some Osaka districts over to the LDP, because it would erode JIP’s greatest stronghold in Osaka. On the other hand, JIP does not have firm basis in other area than Osaka. It is unlikely for JIP to increase seats in all over Japan without support from the LDP. But LDP has its own candidates in each district.

 

The last resort for JIP is secession from coalition with the LDP. However, the fact of helping premiership of Takaichi cannot be erased. There are number of parties which disappeared after joining leading coalition with the LDP. JIP is facing a critical moment for their survival, even a week after the coalition agreement.

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