Koizumi Leads Presidential Race

As election campaign for the president of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gets close to the end, an overall trend can be seen in the polls of news organization. Top runner is Shinjiro Koizumi, who receives firm support from LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members of the party around Japan. If he makes next prime minister of Japan, a lot of agenda are waiting for him, including reunification of the party, party reform, fighting inflation and reinforcing leading coalition.

The survey of Asahi Shimbun to the LDP lawmakers, each of whom has one vote in the presidential election, showed strength of Koizumi. 72 lawmakers out of 295 supported Koizumi for next president, while 57 backed Yoshimasa Hayashi and 37 was for Sanae Takaichi. Takayuki Kobayashi secured 31 votes and Toshimitsu Motegi did 29.

 

In another Asahi poll conducted in late September, Koizumi was ahead of others with 41 percent among LDP supporters, followed by Takaichi with 24 percent, Hayashi with 10 percent, Motegi with 8 percent and Kobayashi with 3 percent. Although Takaichi was the most popular among all the responders, Koizumi was strongest in LDP community. The presidential election is nothing but a voting within LDP community.

 

In a poll of Yomiuri Shimbun in late September, Hayashi took the second position among LDP lawmakers, while Takaichi was drawn back to the third. According to an estimation of Yomiuri, the votes of lawmakers and general party members are going to: Koizumi with 191, Takaichi with 113, Hayashi with 100, Kobayashi with 43 and Motegi with 40. As Koizumi cannot get a majority in the voting, the election is expected to go to the run-off.

 

Mainichi Shimbun reported on October 2nd that Koizumi was leading the race, chased by Takaichi and Hayashi. The paper, as well as others, expects that the election would go to the run-off by the two out of Koizumi, Takaichi and Hayashi. It is likely that the one spot out of two in the run-off will be occupied by Koizumi. Takaichi and Hayashi closely compete over another one.

 

Takaichi attracts rank and file members of the LDP, with her conservative agenda, such as regulation on foreigners in Japan or increasing fiscal spendings, not ruling out further issuance of Japanese governmental bonds. However, her conservative policies invite skepticisms from LDP lawmakers, who have greater influence in the run-off election than in the first round.

 

Having supported Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hayashi upholds moderate policies for his administration. His policies focus on redistribution of wealth, proposing U.K.-style universal credit. Former prime minister Fumio Kishida will support Hayashi, as former owner of Kishida faction to which Hayashi was affiliated.

 

Kishida had a meeting with former premier Taro Aso on October 2nd, two days before the voting. It is speculated that those two had discussed their strategy for the run-off of the presidential election. But whether those former owners of their own faction can exercise their influential power would be a major question in this election.

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