Concerns for Leading Coalition

The greatest concern for Sanae Takaichi administration, which is expected to be established in mid-October, is how to manage her minority government in both Houses of the Diet. Although Takaichi likes to build up a lager coalition by her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), its partner Komeito and one of the major opposition parties, there is no hopeful perspective to find one for securing a majority. Takaichi looks like having no option other than continuing current policy talks with the opposition parties, conducted by Shigeru Ishiba administration. 

Before the voting day of LDP, Takaichi has been willing to formulate a new coalition inviting some opposition power into her possible administration. She said that she hoped to find the new partner before she would formulate new cabinet in the extraordinary session of the Diet, as soon as she would be elected new prime minister, succeeding incumbent Shigeru Ishiba.

 

The first target is the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which upholds increase of take-home pay for the people. Takaichi has been saying that she would agree with DPP’s idea to raise the threshold of imposing income tax up to annual 178 million yen for each family. She is also promised elimination of temporary gasoline tax rate, which was introduced in 1974, to meet DPP’s request.

 

However, DPP’s biggest supporter, Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) firmly opposes the idea that DPP joins the leading coalition. Rengo supports two major opposition parties, the DPP and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ). DPP’s participation to the leading coalition means sharp division of that labor organization. The DPP’s leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, insists on policy talks, not joining the cabinet, as the cooperation with the leading coalition.

 

Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) expected victory of Shinjiro Koizumi in LDP presidential election. Its leader, the governor of Osaka Hirofumi Yoshimura, visited Osaka Kansai EXPO 2025 with Koizumi before the election to discuss policies in possible Koizumi administration. Ishin, therefore, needs to reconstruct its strategy to deal with Takaichi administration. As Ishin compete with Komeito in some single-seat districts of the House of Representatives in Osaka, it is hard for Ishin to join the leading coalition.

 

The biggest opposition party, the CDPJ, shares a policy of introducing refundable tax credit as a measure of helping each family from negative impact of price inflation. However, Takaichi embraces security legislation in 2015, the CDPJ opposes it saying that a part of the legislation is unconstitutional and needs to be changed. As Takaichi insists on agreement on basic policies with coalition partner, the CDPJ is the most unrealistic party for formulating a coalition.

 

Takaichi boasted that she is a conservative politician who upheld stricter regulation against illegal foreigners in Japan. Her conservative stance looked to match Sanseito’s arguments. However, the leader of Sanseito, Sohei Kamiya, denied a coalition with the LDP, saying that his party was established because the LDP was wrong. Takaichi is going to face disadvantage of an old party targeted by new generation.

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