Parties Head to Upper House Election

As the ordinary session of the Diet closed on June 22nd, the parties entered their campaign for election of the Upper House, which will be voted on July 20th. Shigeru Ishiba Cabinet is on the edge of losing its majority in addition to the Lower House. However, the opposition parties have no perspective of being united to form a coalition government, even if they defeat current administration. It is possible that the result of the election may affect the formation of coalition, which currently is consisted of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito. 

The House of Councillors has 248 seats. They are occupied by the LDP with 114 seats, Komeito with 27, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) with 38, Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) with 17, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) with 9, Japan Communist Party with 11, and others with 23. It has 9 vacant seats.

 

The term of each member is 6 years. One half of all the seats are renewed every three years. Among 114 LDP members, the term of 52 lawmakers will be expired in next July. Those whose term will be expired are 14 in Komeito, 22 in the CDPJ, 5 in Ishin, 4 in the DPP and 7 in JCP. To maintain a majority of Ishiba government in the House, the LDP-Koemito coalition needs to secure 50 seats at least.

 

Ishiba set a target of the election at 50 seats by the LDP and Komeito. “Although I cannot easily say a targeted number for winning in the election, I would make every effort to maintain a majority in the House,” said Ishiba in his press conference. The LDP won 63 seats in the previous Upper House election in 2022, and Komeito did 13.

 

As far as seeing that data, it does not seem difficult for the leading coalition to get 50 this year. However, the slush fund scandal outbroken in 2023 is supposed to have a great impact on the election. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on June 22, 2025, the LDP lost significant number of seats. It was analyzed that the slush fund scandal was the biggest reason for the voters to defy the LDP.

 

If the coalition parties lose a majority in the Upper House, it will be the fatal defeat for Ishiba administration. It is possible for the opposition parties to take control in both Houses and to pass non-confidence resolution against Ishiba Cabinet in the Lower House. The LDP may move toward replacing Ishiba. Even if the coalition maintains a majority in the Upper House, it still falls short in the Lower House. Ishiba needs to consider building more stable administration.

 

The opposition parties deliberate campaign strategy to accumulate seats in the contests against the LDP and Komeito. The CDPJ and Ishin agreed on a deal in which the CDPJ would not field a candidate in Wakayama district where Ishin has a candidate. Ishin, in return, will not field a candidate in Gifu where the CDPJ has one. It is an integrated effort to contend against the LDP.

 

The DPP is reluctant to cooperate with other opposition parties, planning to field its own candidates to some districts. It may cause mutual destruction among the opposition parties, benefiting the LDP. Negotiation between the parties continues until the official announcement of the election on July 3rd.

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