Koizumi Abolishes Rice Harvest Index

Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, announced that his ministry would terminate annual publishment of data on rice harvest. The index of rice harvest, as Koizumi explains, has been inaccurate due to some reasons and should be replaced with other data. The index has also been a basis for determining price of rice every year. It is recognized another reform of rice trade by Koizumi. 

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) started announcement of the rice harvest index in 1956 to inform its evaluation of annual rice products in Japan. The index is calculated with comparison of average harvests in previous thirty years categorized in one of five classes: bad, relatively bad, average, relatively good, and good. Average is indicated as 100. The ministry explained last year that rice stock would not cause any shortage, because the index in 2024 was 101.

 

However, actual rice harvest in 2024 was not enough for total demands. The index is based on production in one thousand square meters of existing fields, not including reduction of rice products due to closing the fields. Even if weather was preferable for rice production, rice price can rise if many farmers leave their fields during the year, The government of Japan has been taking a policy to reduce rice fields to maintain trading price of rice.

 

Koizumi said that MAFF would stop publishing rice harvest index from 2025. Instead, the ministry will announce an alternative index which is a simple comparison with the previous year, not the average of three decades. The ministry will introduce digital technology to enhance accuracy of estimation on rice products. It includes data from harvest machines that can calculate the level of production, or data from satellite on climate.

 

The survey for harvest will be closer to the situation of farmers after abolishment of current index. The current standard that a rice bigger than 1.7 millimeters is utilized for eating will be changed into 1.8 to 1.9 millimeters, considering actual operation in rice trade. “I hope to establish new basis for agricultural policy by enhancing accuracy of the survey,” said Koizumi.

 

After taking office of agricultural minister in May, Koizumi has rapidly been promoting reform of agricultural policy, as taking measures for stabilizing rice price. Not only releasing unusually old rice into the market, he would introduce additional measures such as prohibiting resale of rice released from the governmental reserve or early start of importing minimum-access rice in the fall 2025. He knows that rice farmers and traders would be frustrated with the policy.

 

Koizumi’s rice reform is yielding some results. In the publishment of MAFF in mid-June, average rice price marked consecutive decline for three weeks. However, price of branded rice is remaining in high level. The government is closely watching the impact of unusual intervention in rice trade by the government.

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