Ishiba Survives Ordinary Session of the Diet

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba managed to survive 150-day ordinary session of the Diet. The session started in January with a minority government in the Lower House. The main reason why Ishiba could come through the session was not because he was successful in policy talks with the opposition parties, but the opposition parties were too fragmented to drag him down from position of the prime minister. The coming Upper House election will be a true examination for Ishiba as the leader of the government.

 

The biggest concern for Ishiba at the beginning was how he would pass the annual budget by the end of March. To pass the budget bill, Ishiba needed some votes from the opposition parties in the House of Representatives. He had three choices: compromising with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), with Democratic Party for the People (DPP) or with Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai).

 

Cooperation with CDPJ, the biggest opposition party, means a grand coalition which modern Japanese politics has no example. The CDPJ had no reason to make that deal with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the time when it has a good chance to defeat the LDP administration in coming elections. Ishiba refused to accept DPP’s demand to raise threshold of exempting income tax.

 

It was Ishin, led by co-leader Seiji Maehara, which offered a helping hand to Ishiba, rather than joining the oppositions’ effort to destroy Ishiba administration. As the leader of s small party for free high school tuition, Maehara had been serious about implementing his own policy even after assuming a co-leader of Ishin in October 2024. Ishin, under the leadership of Maehara, decided to vote for FY2025 budget, in return the LDP included policy for free high school tuition in FY2025 budget. The budget bill passed before the end of March.

 

Maehara played an important role in the second half of the session. The biggest issue in the second half was whether the opposition parties would submit a non-confidence resolution against Ishiba Cabinet. While the CDPJ leader, Yoshihiko Noda, was considering the submission, Maehara circulated his recognition that Ishiba would dissolve the House of Representatives right after the non-confidence resolution is submitted. That effectively meant double election of both Houses. Maehara has been maintaining a close relationship with Ishiba whenever he could make a telephone call to him. Most lawmakers thought that Maehara’s idea made sense. Noda finally decided not to submit non-confidence resolution against Ishiba, which might have caused resignation of Ishiba or dissolution of the Lower House.

 

It can hardly be said that Ishiba promoted his policies as he hoped through the Diet session. He failed in implementing his promise to conclude the issue of political donation from companies and organizations by the end of March. The LDP abandoned to pass a bill for introducing separate surname system. Ishiba did not reach an agreement on tariffs at the summit meeting with the U.S. President Donald Trump in Kananaskis, Canada, in mid-June. He will face a judgement of voters on those issues in the Upper House election in July.

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