Conflict in Middle East Affects Policies in Japan

Israel and Iran reached an agreement of ceasefire on June 24th with mediation of the United States, after 12-day exchange of fire. Although it tried to keep distance from the conflict, Japan had to make difficult decision as the U.S. was directly involved in the conflict. The conflict also brought some questions in security policy of Japan, which has been willing to build firm security cooperation with the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Israel launched missile attack on nuclear facilities in Iran on June 18th. Japan immediately took position of criticizing Israel, condmening “the use of military means amid the ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Iran talks aimed at the peaceful resolution of the Iran’s nuclear issue.” The main concern of Japan at the time was whether the conflict would affect Japan’s economy, which was highly dependent on crude oil from the Middle East.

 

The condition significantly changed by abrupt military intervention by the U.S. on June 23rd. Japan depends on the U.S. in constructing its security policies. It was not easy for Japan to accuse the U.S. of its attacks on the nuclear facilities in Iran as the same violation of international law as Israel had made. “Japan believes that the most important thing, above all, is to de-escalate the situation as soon as possible. At the same time, Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons must be prevented,” said Minister for Foreign Affairs, Takeshi Iwaya, in his statement.

 

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East raised security concern among the Western countries. NATO leaders basically agreed on raising each of their defense spendings up to 5 percent of GDP. Japan has also been requested by Trump administration to increase its defense budget. It was reported that Japan cancelled annual 2 plus 2 meeting, by ministers in charge of foreign affairs and defense, after the U.S. demanded Japan to raise its defense budget to 3.5 percent of its GDP.

 

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba cancelled his trip to Hague, Netherlands, where NATO leaders meeting would be held. Although it was explained that Ishiba cancelled in accordance with absence of Trump to the meeting, as well as other Asian leaders of Republic of Korea or Australia, it was likely that the Asian leaders were reluctant to participate in NATO’s discussion over the conflict between Israel and Iran.

 

The conflict generated domestic argument over Japan’s security policy. In 2014, Shinzo Abe Cabinet changed interpretation of the Constitution of Japan and enable exercise of collective self-defense right in “survival-threatening situation,” which means “a situation where an armed attack against a foreign country that it a close relationship with Japan occurs, which in turn poses a clear risk of threatening Japan’s survival and of overturning people’s right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness fundamentally.” Abe quoted minesweeping in the Strait of Hormuz as an example of the situation.

 

It was speculated by some experts that Iran might exercise a blockade in Hormuz Strait as a counter measure against U.S. attack on Iran. The interpretation of that possible measure became a major talking point in Japan. The policy chief of Liberal Democratic Party, Itsunori Onodera, former Minister of Defense, explained on June 23rd that it was not the survival-threatening situation so far.

 

It was concerned that the price of crude oil would rise as conflict in the Middle East escalates. Japan depends on crude oil from the Middle East almost by 95 percent. As cost for transportation of oil rises, it affects not only gasoline but such derivatives as naphtha and ethylene. The opposition parties united on a bill for reducing tax on gasoline at the end of Diet session. Oil price can be a political tool between the parties which are facing the Upper House election next month.

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