Three Candidates in Close Race

In a few days after the campaign officially started, the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party began to show changes in the trend of supports. According to the polls, former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba took over former Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi. Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi is catching up Ishiba in a poll. It seems to be a close race by those three candidates.

Asahi Shimbun released the result of poll conducted September 14 and 15, in which Ishiba occupied 26 percent of support as new LDP president, followed by Koizumi with 21 percent and Takaichi with 11%. Among the recipients who support LDP, Ishiba secured 32 percent of support, leaving Koizumi behind with 8 percent margin and Takaichi with 15 percent margin. In the last poll in late August, Koizumi had 28 percent of support among LDP supporters, while Ishiba followed Koizumi with 23 percent.

 

Koizumi looks slowing down as policy discussion by nine candidates is going on. On dissolution of the House of Representatives and snap election, which is the biggest concern for local LDP members, Koizumi declared early dissolution as soon as he would take office of the prime minister.

 

The prime minister can dissolve the Lower House only during the Diet session. It is likely that an extraordinary session of the Diet will be convoked in early October to elect new prime minister replacing Fumio Kishida. It is usual that newly elected prime minister keeps high approval rate for certain period of time. Koizumi must have thought that he, is elected, should dissolve the House and call a snap election before enthusiasm for new P.M. disappears and the approval rate for new Cabinet starts declining.

 

However, it is also usual that new prime minister faces examination on his policy with the opposition parties in the Diet, first in the Plenary Sittings and then in the Committee on Budget of both Houses. Koizumi thought that the discussion in the Diet unnecessary, because new prime minister would have come through long discussion in LDP presidential election before the public audience.

 

But the campaign discussion is only made inside LDP after all. Candidates answer no question from the opposition parties during presidential campaign. Koizumi’s argument, not hearing voices from the opposition, might be regarded as arrogance of the LDP.

Ishiba unequivocally opposed Koizumi’s idea of early snap election. “The voters will choose either the leading coalition of LDP and Komeito or the opposition parties. It is not enough if we do not have any discussion in the Diet,” said Ishiba upholding late snap election after the discussion in the budget committees. As most other candidates opposed early election, Koizumi is isolated among the candidates.

 

The poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun showed interesting results. Yomiuri asked questions LDP lawmakers and local LDP members and supporters who are supposed to have votes for the presidential election. Yomiuri poll drew a conclusion that Takaichi and Ishiba will hypothetically collect the same amount of votes in the first round of presidential election, leaving others behind.

 

Ishiba obtained 26 percent of support from local LDP members and supporters, followed by Takaichi with 25 percent and Koizumi with 16 percent, which meant Ishiba would have 97 votes, Takaichi 94 and Koizumi 60. Among 352 LDP lawmakers who received the questionnaire, 45 supported for Koizumi, 29 for Takaichi and 26 for Ishiba. The sum of local votes and lawmakers’ votes raised two top candidates, Takaichi and Ishiba, with 123 votes each. Koizumi was dropped to the third position with 105 votes.

 

It is remarkable that Takaichi showed abrupt surge among local LDP members and supporters. Although Takaichi was late in announcing her candidacy, taking time to fulfill twenty endorsements from LDP lawmakers, it is likely that Takaichi’s political stance following former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attracted local party members and supporters. It indicated that certain nostalgia for Abe administration, when the LDP enjoyed unilateral leadership in the Diet, still remains in the party.

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