Ishiba Wins in Close Race for President

The Liberal Democratic Party elected former Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba for its 28th President on September 27. Although Ishiba was at the second position behind Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi in the first round, he overtook her in the run-off election. Most LDP lawmakers expect Ishiba to remove the image of corruption labeled on the party, caused by the slush fund scandal, and lead the party to a victory in coming general election of the House of Representatives.

The presidential election was competed by nine candidates, following announcement of standing down by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The race was initially led by former Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi, but he slowed down as he revealed his immaturity in policies such as deregulation of firing workers or unilateral conviction of benefit of early snap election, if he would be elected president.

 

The candidate who occupied top position was Takaichi who obtained 181 votes, 72 from lawmakers and 109 from rank-and-file party members. Ishiba got 154, 46 from lawmakers and 108 from the rank-and-file. But Ishiba collected 215 votes in the run-off, 189 from lawmakers and 26 from prefectural branches, while Takaichi obtained 194, 173 from lawmakers and 21 from prefectural branches.

 

In the run-off, Ishiba increased 143 votes among lawmakers, from 46 to 189. Although Takaichi gained unexpected 73 from lawmakers in the first round, she added only 101 in the run-off. Takaichi’s surge in the first round is supposed to be caused by collective support from Aso faction, which leader, former prime minister Taro Aso did not have good relationship with Ishiba.

 

Kishida accumulated meeting with members of former Kishida faction, who were involved in the campaign of Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, to analyze situation of presidential election. It is speculated that Kishida urged them to vote for Ishiba in the run-off, because Ishiba had been saying that he would succeed Kishida’s economic policies.

 

This was the LDP presidential election in which factions worked the least in its history. It has been usual that the factions show collective action in the voting to exercise their influence to the next administration. They sometimes bought votes of lawmakers with money or offering post of cabinet. Some candidates ran in the election this time, contending to a candidate endorsed by the faction they were affiliated to.

 

However, a group that aims to the same policy goal or shares common political principle can constitute a faction. It is possible that each of nine candidates will act as quasi-faction, because they at least shared common policies as their platform in the presidential campaign. The LDP has reiterated failure of dismantling factions form the beginning of its history. It is predictable that new factions will emerge sooner or later.

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