Second Anniversary of Kishida Administration

Two years have passed since Fumio Kishida took the seat of Prime Minister on October 4^th, 2021. No outstanding achievement made by him has appeared so far. Popularity does not show obvious boost. The opposition parties say that they do not understand what Kishida wants to do. Nevertheless, the administration looks to be relatively stable with his handlings on power balance in Liberal Democratic Party. Kishida administration is maintained not by his own handlings on politics, but by the outer elements. 

At the beginning of his administration, Kishida insisted on revival of Kochi-kai politics. Different from Seiwa-kai, the faction once led by former prime minister Shinzo Abe which upheld strong leadership and invited controversy on its hawkish stance, Kochi-kai focuses more on economy than security. Kishida proposed some policies, such as doubling people’ income or garden city concept, traced his political mentors’ projects. Those policies have not shown their good shape.

 

It makes a contrast with second Abe administration starting 2012. Soon after he took the office, Abe announced “three arrows” of Abenomics -- bold monetary policy, positive fiscal policy and growth strategy – and appointed Haruhiko Kuroda to the Governor of Bank of Japan, who consecutively issued surprising monetary easing policies. Abe also did not hide his intention of constitutional amendment, proposing lowering the hurdle of initiative from two-third majority in the Diet, as in Article 96, to one half. Abe’s political goal was, sometimes excessively, clear.

 

Kishida maintained his administration for two years, anyway, not because strong leadership, but because political conditions supporting him. During Abe accumulated the victories in the elections, the opposition parties have been weakened to the extent that they would not be able to take the administration. After the assassination of Abe last year revealed close relationship between former Unification Church and LDP, the supporting rate for Kishida administration apparently declined. Mistakes in registration of My Number Card spurred the unpopularity. But those negative issues did not work for the ascension of the opposition parties.

 

Even the Ukraine War supported Kishida. He could appeal his international leadership as the chair of Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima this May, inviting the war president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. When Kishida insisted the necessity of the greater security budget for Japan’s defense, no major protest, such as against redefinition of collective self-defense right, occurred in Japan. Abe or his successor Yoshihide Suga had already paved the way to wage growth or discharge of processed water from Fukushima.

 

With those good lucks, Kishida can focus on the maintenance of his administration. In the cabinet reshuffle last month, he paid attention to balance the power of factions in LDP and deter new movements for succeeding him. Although “not support” always surpass “support’ in the polls, Kishida have much time to deliberate the strategy for victory in coming LDP presidential election next fall.