By-elections Generate Instability

In the two by-elections voted on October 22nd, Liberal Democratic Party won one and lost another. That does not mean a draw, because both seats were occupied by LDP before the elections. LDP decreased one seat. The results revealed an unstable political basis of Fumio Kishida administration, which is facing the public frustration with inflation or indecisive handlings of the policies. Not only the possibility of a snap election within this year is declining, but skepticism on the leadership of Kishida may grow inside LDP.

The election in Tokushima-Kochi district of House of Councillors, LDP had a disadvantage from the start of the campaign, because the criticism against the former lawmaker’s violence had been prevalent among the voters. Having experienced a bitter defeat in the previous election in 2022, the opposition parties established a structure of supporting one candidate. The leaders of the opposition parties regarded the result as an achievement of cooperation, however, it is unlikely for the result to lead to a drastic boost of raising unified candidate in every district. There are still firm oppositions in CDP in some regions.

 

The winning with a slight margin in Nagasaki 4th district of House of Representatives must be lucky for LDP. LDP candidate Yozo Kaneko had a name value as a son of former governor and former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Genjiro Kaneko. While Yozo could not expect a full support from the opposite side in LDP, low turnout helped him. The share of LDP supporters increased among the whole voters.

 

The wind was blowing against LDP. As the most ordinary people in Japan, the voters in Nagasaki were tired of persistent inflation. Kishida’s idea of tax increase for defense budget was overwhelmingly unpopular to the people. Kishida ordered LDP to consider income tax reduction just before the voting day, but that indecisive attitude caused rather disappointment than expectation.

 

Although LDP had set a goal at one winning from the two before the election, it is likely that the result of the by-elections will remain as a damage in Kishida administration. As seen in the reshuffle of his Cabinet last month, Kishida’s supreme goal is being reelected in the presidential election of LDP next year. For that purpose, Kishida has been willing to take advantage of his authority for dissolution of House of Representatives and having a snap election at any time.

 

A week before the election day, all the polls by the newspapers of Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri and Kyodo News marked the lowest approval rate of Kishida Cabinet. Even though Kishida administration decided to request the dissolution order against Family Federation of World Peace and Unification, which most people supported for, it did not contribute to raise the approval rate for the Cabinet. While the polls suggested mishandlings in the policies such as registration of My Number Card as the reason of decline, Kishida plainly responded to the polls by saying that he would deal with the issues that could not be postponed.

 

The result of by-elections may accelerate this trend. It is obvious that Kishida needs to show some achievements in his policies to improve the situation of his administration. For that purpose, Kishida focused on the economic measures, because he probably knows the people’s frustration with inflation. But it takes certain time for the measures to bring their result.

 

Not only the opposition parties but the lawmakers of LDP is raising voices that the dissolution of House of Representatives by the end of this year became difficult. It is usual that the lawmakers defy their prime minister with low popularity when he seeks the dissolution, because the following general election will be nothing but a big risk for their survival.

 

If the leader is not reliable, it is natural for the party members to try to replace the person. There can be discussions in each faction to avoid the crisis and raising candidate to the presidential election next fall. To keep away from that vicious circle, Kishida has at least to raise his approval rate and show some policy achievements within this year.

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