Struggle within Leading Party

According to the news reports on Thursday, the day after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his cabinet and the board members of Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida actually wanted to change the structure of his administration. He considered replacing LDP Secretary General Toshimutsu Motegi, but could not do that with consideration of losing grip on the third largest group in LDP. The episode indicate that Kishida administration fundamentally has a cause of trouble inside. 

Not concealing his ambition to succeed Kishida administration, Motegi had been revealing his preferences in the reshuffle to his colleagues. It was reported that Minister of Finance had not been his option to accept. He has been active in announcing the result of some important policy discussions to appeal his leadership. For instance, the decision of abolishing the upper limit of income for the recipients of child care subsidy was firstly announced by Motegi before consulting with Kishida in January. It is not strange if Kishida thought that Motegi was too ambitious to lead the party.

 

But if Kishida replaces Motegi and excludes from the administration, Motegi group may be raising Motegi as a contender against Kishida in next LDP presidential election in September next year. There will be a large struggle among the factions inside LDP, making any policy promotion difficult for a year. With recommendation of Vice-President Taro Aso, Kishida thought twice and leaving Motegi as the secretary general.

 

Kishida did not forget a countermeasure against the ambition of his subordinate. Kishida picked Yuko Obuchi, a daughter of late former prime minister Keizo Obuchi, from Motegi group as the chair of Election Strategy Committee, the position which was one of the four pillars in LDP Board. It gave her a chance to sell herself as another possible candidate for the president, or a prime minister.

 

Obuchi has a firm support from her father’s close colleagues: Keizo’s successor Yoshiro Mori, who still has a strong influence to Abe group, and a late boss in LDP members of House of Councillors Mikio Aoki, who had not been a supporter of Motegi in Motegi group. Kishida might have expected Obuchi to form another power center inside Motegi group.

 

Assignment of Yoshitaka Shindo to the Cabinet as Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization might also be the measure against Motegi. Shindo is one of the strongest supporters in Motegi group. It can be a strategy to separate those two and alienate Motegi. New administration started with possibility of a struggle over the presidency.

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