Competing over Interests in Southeast Asia

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida embarked on a diplomatic tour to Asian countries. In the summit meeting with ASEAN leaders in Jakarta, Indonesia, Kishida stressed Japan’s determination to a closer relationship with Southeast Asia, hoping to achieve a better understanding on the issues that were facing countermeasures from China. But ASEAN is taking a neutral position in the conflicts among major powers. It is unclear whether Kishida could achieve full support on Japan’s standpoint. 

In the leaders’ meeting of ASEAN Plus Three, Kishida referred to Japan’s current discharge of the processed water from crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. “In the comprehensive report of International Atomic Energy Agency, its impact to human body and environment is said to be negligible,” said Kishida, promising transparency in disclosing the monitoring data. Kishida also appealed that China had been taking outstanding actions against the discharge, requiring China moderate response based on scientific evidence.

 

In the same meeting, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang argued that the disposal of nuclear-contaminated water concerns the global marine ecological environment and people’s health, requiring Japan to fulfill its international obligations. Although Kishida and Li had a bilateral meeting in the backdrop of multilateral conference, each of the two parties insisted in their own standpoint.

 

When ASEAN Plus Three was established in 1997, it was the framework of progress with the leadership of Japan, China and Republic of Korea. This year, it sems to become a place where Japan and China are competing each other. As seen in the remark of President of Indonesia Joko Widodo, the chairman of ASEAN Summit, that “ASEAN is not a proxy for any power,” ASEAN obviously hopes to be neutral to maintain its unity.

 

Japan’s economy is getting dependent on ASEAN. The sum of export and import between Japan and ASEAN occupied 15% of all in 2022. ASEAN supplies a large amount of human resource to Japan’s labor market, supporting Japan’s current shortage of labor power. China also hopes ASEAN to be a major recipient of Chinese goods, which exports toward the Western countries is shrinking.

 

In this competitive situation, Japan has to understand the geopolitical situation of ASEAN. In the leaders’ meeting between Japan and ASEAN, Kishida announced that the relationship between Japan and ASEAN would be upgraded from “strategic partnership” to “comprehensive strategic partnership” and Japan would host a special leaders’ meeting in Tokyo in December. In a speech at the business meeting in Jakarta, he listed six points of Japan’s support for ASEAN: transportation infrastructure, digital technology, maritime cooperation, enhancing supply chain, stable electric energy supply and exchanging human resource. ASEAN will look at the implementation later this year.

 

Former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda issued Fukuda Doctrine toward ASEAN in 1977, which regarded ASEAN as an equal partner and vowed not to be a militarily major power. Kishida has to remember that fundamental attitude.