Booster Ineffective

Most newspapers have reported the result of polls after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his Cabinet and the leaders of Liberal Democratic Party. Overwhelming trend was that no outstanding effect of the reshuffle was seen for boosting the administration. Kishida is likely to have less chance to dissolve the House of Representatives and have general election before the end of his term as the president of LDP next fall.

The polls showed the supporting rate for Kishida Cabinet was unchanged or slight hike. In the poll by Yomiuri just after the reshuffle, people who supported Kishida Cabinet was 35%, as low as the previous month, and who did not was 50%. In Nikkei’s, it was 42% for support and 51% for not support. Mainichi’s weekend survey showed 25% of the supporting rate, 1 point of decline and tied to the lowest of Kishida Cabinet as in December 2022. The unsupportive occupied 68%.

 

In the Kyodo’s survey, the support was 39.8% with 6.2 point of rise from the previous month. Support in Asahi’s poll was 37% with the hike of 5 points. The ratio of unsupportive answers was 39.7% in Kyodo and 53% in Asahi. Those results may indicate certain positive image on Kishida’s leadership, especially in Kyodo survey, but it can also be said that the effect of booster effect which Kishida was limited.

 

Although Kishida focused on appointing woman as Ministers, the main reason why the supporting rate stay low was about woman. While bringing five women in the Cabinet was approved by six or seven out of ten in the polls, 28% felt the promotion was insufficient, exceeding 23% of sufficient. About the result that no woman was selected for State Ministers and Parliamentary Vice-Ministers in Asahi’s poll, 75% thought it was a problem, and 43% not problem. On the promotion of Yuko Obuchi, who is facing criticisms on not explained enough about her past money scandal, for the chair of LDP Election Strategy Committee, “inappropriate” exceeded “appropriate” in all polls.

 

In Asahi’s poll, 75% thought that the relationship of four ministers with Family Federation for World Peace and Unification was problematic. In Mainichi’s poll, 77% answered that their expectation to the Cabinet was not raised by the reshuffle. The top reason why they did not evaluate the reshuffle was Kishida had considered the views of the factions in LDP too much.

 

The supporting rate for the parties showed no major change by the reshuffle. While LDP stayed around 25%, the top in the opposite was Innovation Party at the middle of tens followed by Constitutional Democratic Party with a few points behind. If the reshuffle would have caused an apparent boost in LDP’s support, Kishida could have a choice of dissolving House of Representatives and have a general election. The result of the polls, however, indicates Kishida’s inability to do that political adventure, as seen at the end of the last Diet session in June.

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