One Year of Takaichi Administration

Sanae Takaichi cerebrated her first anniversary as the prime minister on October 21st. Although her administration embarked on with vulnerable political basis in the leading coalition, she maintained relatively high approval rate as the first female prime minister in Japan with artificial smile. Promoting eternal growth of Japanese economy, she displays herself as a novice in diplomacy, namely toward China. 

Takaichi administration can be defined as an economy-oriented hawkish regime, which can be likened to the regime led by Shinzo Abe or Jun-ichiro Koizumi. Abe promoted Abenomics – mixture of fiscal mobilization, monetary policy and growth strategy – making it a driving force for hawkish agenda, including new security legislation in 2015. Koizumi also pushed fiscal decentralization called “trinity-in-unity reform,” while he stood by U.S. war on terror, sending Japan’s Self-defense Force to Iraq.

 

Takaichi administration may be closer to Koizumi’s than Abe’s. Surrounded by “resistant powers” in the LDP represented by relatively pro-China Obuchi faction, Koizumi gradually built his firm dominance by defeating those opponents, on which Abe exercised unilateral power. Respecting Abe as her political mentor, Takaichi looks like tracing Koizumi’s method, which recovers weak basis in the LDP with populism. The common ground of Koizumi, Abe and Takaichi is promoting hawkish agenda with economic policies as a cause.

 

Takaichi places active investment at the center of her policy framework. Upholding “responsible and proactive public finances,” she proposed 370 trillion yen of public and private investment by 2040 with no fiscal guarantee. Introducing consumption tax cut for foods for two years, which was originally raised by opposition parties, is one of the examples of Takaichi’s populism to maintain momentum of her administration.

 

Backed by public support for her economic policy, she enacted controversial bills in the Diet. National Flag Vandalism Act and revised Imperial House Law to enable adoption of former imperial families were the tools to attract right wing groups that consists of Takaichi’s political basis. “Promoting controversial agenda that divide national opinion,” a phrase that Takaichi repeats, is not what the national leader is supposed to do to unite the people.

 

As she devoted herself to keep her image of hard-working woman spending sleepless nights, she made serious mistakes both in foreign and domestic policy. Her comment on Taiwan contingency last November, touching on a possibility of Japan’s use of force, gave China an opportunity to accuse Japan’s “new militarism.” Takaichi has not made any meaningful counteraction against China. Observing exacerbated relations between Japan and China, Russia strengthens pressure on Japan, as seen in President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iturup Island,

 

When she realized inappropriate speech on reducing road budget for two municipalities by Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Kazuo Yana, Takaichi firstly tried to protect him, only to be forced to replace him later. She did not understand how that scandal affect the schedule of Diet discussion. Although it did not affect much on her approval ratings, her delayed management of the scandal caused skepticism on Takaichi’s political skills in the LDP, unification of opposition powers and further reports on scandals of other staffs.

 

It is unclear whether she can compensate her mistakes with her economic agenda for active investment. Price inflation brought by energy price hike related to U.S. war in Iran or depreciation of Japanese yen against U.S. dollar are working against Takaichi. Approval rate for Takaichi Cabinet in the polls has kept on declining for a year. She seems to have no leverage to turn this trend around.

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