Diet Seats Reduction Postponed

Parties in the Diet agreed on postponing conclusion of reduction of the seats. The reduction has been initiated by the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which is performing to show itself as serious about political reform, urging the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to accelerate implementation of the bilateral agreement on this issue. However, not only the opposition parties but some LDP members are reluctant to reduce the seats, which may threaten their status as lawmakers.

The Council for Election System in The Lower House, a multi-partisan discussion body, wrapped up a report which urged each party to promote “relentless reform” of election system by the end of October. Although the reform was interpreted as including seat reduction by leading parties, the report has no description about seat reduction. The council had been targeting at the end of September, when interim result of 2025 Census would be released, for the time of concluding the reduction of Lower House seats.

 

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi focuses on passing bills for introducing consumption tax cut in the extraordinary session of the Diet, which is scheduled to be convoked on October 5th. Being in short of a majority in the Upper House, the leading coalition by the LDP and JIP needs some help from the opposition parties to pass the bills. It is likely that Takaichi administration cannot afford to deal with sharp opposition from the opposition parties over any other issues including Diet seat reduction.

 

There is a discussion that the leading coalition can push bills for seat reduction with supermajority in the Lower House. Article 59 of the Constitution of Japan provides that the Lower House can overturn the rejection of a bill by the Upper House with two-third majority. And failure of the Upper House to pass a bill received with Lower House’s approval within 60 days is regarded as a rejection. Using this 60-days rule, the LDP and JIP can theoretically pass the seat reduction bill with two-third majority only in the Lower House.

 

But this scenario requires extension of the term of ordinary session, which is planned to be closed on December 12th. The government needs to conclude budget bill, which may include consumption tax cut, in December to submit it to the ordinary session in January 2027. It is very hard for Takaichi administration to secure enough time to pass the seat reduction bill using the 60-days rule.

 

The JIP and LDP have agreed on reducing 45 seats in proportional representatives in the Lower House. It generated firm protest from the opposition parties, because reduction in proportional district works against small parties. As they are hard to win in a single-seat district, small parties are highly dependent on votes in proportional district. For the regret of leading parties, the opposition parties are united against the seat reduction.

 

A multi-partisan league of lawmakers submitted their opinion on election system reform to the chairman of election system council. The opinion criticized leading parties’ bill for reducing 45 seats as baseless. Although the Lower House has maintained the ratio between single-seat districts and proportional one in 3 to 2, since current election system was introduced in 1996, 45-reduction plan will significantly changes that balance. The only advocator of the plan is the JIP, which is enthusiastic in appealing its position as a reformer.

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