LDP and Komeito on the Edge of a Majority

Major newspapers conducted polls at the early stage of the Upper House election that will be voted on July 20th. They showed a tendency that the ruling coalition by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito would reduce their seats in the House, while the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) would surge. It is unpredictable whether the leading coalition can maintain their simple majority in the House.

The election will be held for 125 seats, including 1 seat of by-election in Tokyo district, out of all 248 seats in the House. The leading coalition needs to secure 50 seats, adding to 75 seats without election this year, to maintain a simple majority in the House. All the polls indicated that the coalition is standing at the edge of losing majority with possibility of growth of the opposition powers.

 

Yomiuri Shimbun anticipates that the LDP may reduce its seats from 52 to 40. Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun also project that it will be 40 or less. The LDP candidates take the lead against contenders in around 10 single-seat districts out of all 32. The single-seat districts determine victory of the election every time. The LDP occupied 28 seats (87 percent) out of 32 single-seat districts in the last election in 2022.

 

As the coalition partner of the LDP, Komeito is also supposed to reduce its seats from 14 to around 10. It is predictable that the coalition will get about 50 seats, which is the minimum number to maintain a simple majority. If the coalition fails in having majority, it will be running minority government in both Houses of the Diet.

 

The biggest opposition party, CDPJ, is likely to increase its seats from 22 to the level close to 30. Although the party achieved only 2 in single-seat districts three years ago, it is leading in 8 districts for this election. The CDPJ is also expected to increase some seats in proportional districts from 7 in last Upper House election. The DPP can increase its seats both in single-seats and proportional districts, although the party is suffering from decline of support caused by selection of candidates.

 

Some conservative parties are taken attention in the election. Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) does not show any surge in the polls. Although the party obtained 12 seats in the last election, the winners of Ishin may shrink to the half.

 

Instead, one new party appealing conservative policies, including exclusion of foreigners in Japan, is getting popular for internet users. Sanseito attracts young voters through social networking services or YouTube, raising its support to the level close to the CDPJ in some polls. It is predicted that the party can win 3 seats in single-seat districts and 6 in the proportional district.

 

On the liberal side, Reiwa Shinsengumi is expected to get 3 or 4 seats in the proportional district, while Japan Communist Party will reduce its seats. In both sides of the conservative and the liberal, it is likely that swing voters are moving back and forth beyond the party borders.

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