Ishiba Government Loses Majority in Both Houses

The Upper House election in Japan on July 20 resulted in a significant defeat for ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The leading coalition of the LDP and Komeito lost a majority in the Upper House, as same as in the Lower House since last October. Although Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that he would stay in his position, his government will be extremely instable condition in which it can immediately be broken down. 

In the Upper House election, 125 members (including supplement for 1 vacancy in Tokyo district) out of all 248 seats were elected. The LDP reduced its seats from 52 before the election to 39, while Komeito also did from 14 to 8. Both parties have 75 seats without election this year. Total sum of their seats in the Upper House is 122, which is in short of a simple majority by 3 seats.

 

The biggest opposition party, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), could not obtain clear victory, gaining 22 seats with no change from the pre-election status. Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) just added 2 seats, from 5 to 7. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) made a significant surge from 4 seats to 17, while a new populist party, Sanseito, expanded from 1 seat to 14.

 

Campaign strategy of the LDP did not work well. The party upheld cash handouts for children and low-income families to recover price inflation. However, the policy was recognized by voters as temporary and less effective than lowering consumption tax rate which the opposition parties demanded. Failure in concluding on political donation from companies, introducing separate surname or in concluding tariff negotiation with the United States undermined voters’ credibility on the LDP.

 

The opposition parties were more serious about reaching every individual in the campaign. The slogan of DPP, “The summer of increasing take-home pay,” appealed to the voters, as if the party could give more cash in their pocket by the end of this summer. Making clear contrast, the LDP insisted on long-term and conceptual policies, such as “1 million yen of additional salary in 2030” or future target of “1,000 trillion yen of Japan’s GDP.”

 

The reason why he chose staying as P.M. was because he learned that he could maintain his government without majority in the houses. In spite of losing majority in the Lower House, he could pass FY2025 annual budget in the Lower House by the end of March this year. He also was successful in avoiding submission of no-confidence resolution by the opposition parties. It is worth surprising that he could keep his government for nine months without majority in the Lower House.

 

It is unlikely that the opposition parties, from leftist Japan Communist Party to far-right Sanseito, will be united to defeat Ishiba administration and formulate a coalition government.

 

Another reason of Ishiba’s confidence in his power is stemming from the fact that he has no outstanding rival in his own party so far. Sanae Takaichi, the finalist of last LDP presidential election in 2024, expressed her willingness to run for next presidential election two days before the Upper House election. However, LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama firmly dismissed such moves, saying that it was not the time for political struggle. Other contenders in last presidential election are not active against Ishiba, or in the position to support Ishiba.

 

It is likely that Ishiba will seek discussion with opposition parties respectively on each policy as he has been, expecting good opportunity for adding opposition parties in the leading coalition to reinforce his administration. However, Ishiba administration will always be in instability of possible collapse by offence of opposition powers or internal upsurge of anti-Ishiba movement in the LDP.