LDP and Komeito May Lose Majority

As Upper House election campaigns reach an end, it gets obvious that ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to reduce seats. According to the polls of news organizations, the leading coalition by the LDP and Komeito would not maintain a majority in the Upper House. If the election results in that miserable defeat for the LDP, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will be precipitated in a serious jeopardy.

In the poll of Asahi Shimbun conducted on July 13th and 14th, the LDP will likely to reduce its seats from 52 before the election to 34. Komeito may also decline from 14 to 9. The LDP and Komeito need 50 seats in the election to maintain their majority in the Upper House, in addition to their 75 seats without election this year. If they cannot reach the line of 50, they lose majority in both Houses of the Diet.

 

The biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), is expected to gain 27 seats as a sum of prefectural districts and proportional constituency. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) would be increasing its seats from 5 to 16 or more. A new populist party, Sanseito, is reportedly achieving significant victory with 7 seats in prefectural districts and 8 in the proportional.

 

Japan Innovation Party (Nipon Ishin-no Kai), Japan Communist Party (JCP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi will not make a significant surge or reduce their seats.

 

The poll of Mainichi Shimbun showed mostly the same result. The estimation of LDP seats declined from between 32 and 46 in the early stage of the campaign to between 27 and 43 in the current one. Komeito is within the range of 4 to 12. The paper estimates that it gets harder for the leading coalition to maintain a majority. The CDPJ will surely add its seats from current 22, as the DPP may multiply its seats. Ishin, JCP and Reiwa will stay low. Sanseito is gaining a momentum.

 

In the poll of Kyodo News, the LDP will secure about 40 seats, as Komeito cannot maintain its 14 seats now they have in the House. The poll also indicates some weakness of the CDPJ in proportional constituency and the DPP has a good chance to triple its seats.

 

The greatest reason of LDP’s possible defeat is slowdown in 32 single-seat districts. LDP reduced leading single-seat districts from 12 in early July to 4 now in the Asahi poll. The opposition parties show quick charges in some single-seat districts such as Gunma, Ishikawa or Kumamoto. Mainichi estimates that the opposition parties are leading in 16 single-seat districts. In Toyama and Yamanashi, the opposition candidate overturned the lead of LDP candidate.

 

Mainichi analyzes that Sanseito is eroding the basis of the LDP in every prefectural district, because Sanseito fielded its candidate to all of them. Sanseito upholds some conservative policies which may attract LDP supporters. There seems to be a trend that some supporters frustrated with Ishiba administration are shifting from the LDP to Sanseito.

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