Japan’s Emission Target Still Falls Short

Following the cabinet decision of the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, the government of Japan submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The target set by Japan was reduction of greenhouse gasses by 60 percent compared to the level in 2013 in fiscal year 2035 (between April 2035 and March 2036). But it was proved to be falling short of the target set by the international body for tackling global warming.

The 28th UNFDCC conference of the parties (COP 28) held in United Arab Emirates in 2023 concluded that global greenhouse gas emissions needed to be cut 43 percent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius, which was the target set in the Paris Agreement in 2015. Paris Agreement requires each party to renew its original NDC in 2015 every five years and the members are supposed to submit their climate actions through 2035 by 2025.

 

The NDC of Japan also aims at 73 percent of greenhouse gasses reduction from 2013 level by FY 2040. It also noted Japan’s target to achieve net zero emission by 2050, which the country declared in 2020. Japan argues that the 46 percent reduction by 2030, which was the goal set in 2021, 60 percent by 2035 and 73 percent by 2040 are aligned with the “ambitious target” of 2050 net zero.

 

However, Japan’s goal is standing on different basis from the UN. While the goal set in COP 28 was reduction from the level of 2019, Japan submitted its plan of reduction from the level of 2013, the year when Japan’s emission was at the peak since 1990. The higher is the level which is compared to, the easier Japan achieves its target which is set by percentage. If it hoped to meet the target set in COP 28, Japan has to reduce its emission by 66 percent in FY 2035, compared to 2013.

 

In the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, which Ishiba Cabinet simultaneously decided, Japan is going to reduce dependence on thermal power generation, combusting fossil fuels, from current 68.6 percent to the level of 30 to 40 percent in 2040. In other words, Japan is planning to continue thermal power generation beyond the level of 30 to 40 percent for next fifteen years at least.

 

The plan argues that Japan needs to balance all the power resources to make decarbonization and stable power supply compatible. “While it needs to introduce renewable energy as much as possible, Japan should not be dependent on specific single power resource,” the plan describes.

 

However, it is true that the most power companies have more been enthusiastic in resuming their nuclear reactors than developing opportunities for renewable energy. As the result, Japan’s emission target is falling short of required target with slow progress in clearing regulation on nuclear power generation, which was set after the severe accident in Fukushima in 2011.

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