Replacement of National Security Advisor

Shigeru Ishiba Cabinet decided to replace National Security Advisor (NSA), Takeo Akiba to Masataka Okano, Vice-minister for Foreign Affairs. It is supposed that Ishiba decided the replacement considering the timing when the leadership of the United States is significantly changed by incoming Donald Trump. The replacement of NSA will officially be announced on the day of Trump’s inauguration, January 20th, 2025. 

Appointed in July 2021 by former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Akiba was in charge of reviewing the three security documents under the leadership of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in December 2022. The renewed documents -- National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program – determined necessity of accumulating 43 trillion yen of defense budget between FY 2023 and FY 2027.

 

Akiba also led the discussion over introduction of active cyber defense to prevent cyberattack on security infrastructure in Japan. It was reported that Japan has been suffered from cyberattacks by Chinese hackers since 2019. National Security Secretariat led by NSA deals with relationship with allied countries over sharing information or building security cooperation.

 

Incoming NSA, Okano, was former Minister to the United States from 2015 to 2018, during when Trump was elected the President. It is expected that Okano will work for establishing close relationship with Trump 2.0 administration. As expert of international law, having experienced Director of International Legal Affairs Division in Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Okano may discuss the issues based on legal principles.

 

The biggest question is why Ishiba replaced NSA now. Akiba had close relationship with top diplomats of foreign countries. In the meeting with Chinese Minister for Foreign Affairs, Wan Yi, last November, Akiba succeeded in paving the way to have bilateral leader’s meeting between Ishiba and Chinese President, Xi Jinping, in Peru, in the backdrop of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. He also has been close to Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor of Joe Biden administration.

 

It is supposed that Akiba stepped down to keep for post for his home ministry, MOFA. The first NSA, Shotaro Yachi, appointed by Shinzo Abe in 2014 was a professional diplomat. However, Yachi did not have good relationship with Abe’s staff from Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The second NSA was one of Abe’s allies from National Police Agency, not a diplomat from MOFA.

 

After a decade of working, NSA became the position with important issues related to diplomacy. Diplomatic skill is required for NSA in negotiation with foreign governments. It is likely that Akiba wanted to pass his post to someone from MOFA. Then, there remains another fundamental question: if NSA is in charge of important diplomatic issues, what MOFA is going to do?

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