New Year Starts with Hung Parliament

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba entered the new year with hung parliament in the House of Representatives. The political event with the highest priority in 2025 is election of the House of Councillors currently scheduled on July 20th. Ishiba very vaguely indicated possibility of double election with snap election of the Lower House on the same day. However, it is skeptical that Ishiba has sufficient political power to control the election. 

The parties mostly agreed on convocation of an ordinary session of the Diet on January 24th with 150-day term ending on June 22nd. The Public Offices Election Act determines that election of the House of Councillors must be held on a day after 24 to 30 days from the end of Diet session. It is usual that the session would not be extended in the year of Upper House election and the election is held on Sunday. So, it is supposed to be held on Sunday July 20th this year.

 

The Upper House has 248 seats. The leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito now has a simple majority with 141 seats. 66 members of the coalition will end their term this year, and they will run for the election or retire. If the coalition loses 17 or more out of those 66 in the coming election, it will lose its majority in the Upper House. It is likely that Ishiba will be forced to step down as the prime minister when the coalition loses majority in both Houses.

 

To maintain his administration, Ishiba does not rule out a double election. It is recognized that the double election works favorable for the leading parties, because opposition parties would hardly be making united campaign simultaneously in both Houses and the voters would be reluctant to make a drastic regime change. In the two double elections in 1980 and 1986, leading LDP achieved sweeping victories.

 

Ishiba referred to the possibility of a double election. In his appearance in a TV program on December 28th, he indicatedhis choice of a snap election of the Lower House, if the Diet passes non-confidence resolution against the prime minister in the ordinary session in 2025. If the resolution passes at the end of the session, a double election emerges as a realistic choice.

 

He also said that the snap election could also be set when the budget bill for FY 2025 would be rejected by the Diet. “It is the system of the Constitution of Japan that the people make a decision when the Diet says ‘No’ to the bill submitted by the cabinet,” told Ishiba with his own interpretation of the constitution.

 

However, there is no guarantee for the leading coalition to win a victory in the double election this year. The approval rate for Ishiba Cabinet has kept on declining since he took the seat in October 2024. The slush fund scandal has not settled by the end of last year, leaving fundamental doubts on ethical standard of the LDP among the voters. If Ishiba goes to a reckless decision for dissolving the Lower House and having a double election, his colleagues will stop him and make movement for replacing him.

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