Ordinary Diet Session Starts with Hung Parliament

The 217th Diet was convoked on January 24th. It is an ordinary session with term of 150 days, expecting to close on June 22nd. While the biggest issue in the first half of the session is, as always, annual budget for FY 2025, the leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito does not have a simple majority in the House of Representatives. It is focused that how the leading parties include one or some of the opposition parties on their side to pass the budget.

Shigeru Ishiba Cabinet approved the draft of FY 2025 budget, made by the Minister of Finance, which total spendings amounted to a record high of 115 trillion yen. Among the spendings, cost for social security exceeded the highest amount in the past. Defense budget would be swollen to implement Japan’s pledge to raise it to 2 percent of GDP, and payment for Japanese government bonds issued in the past increases as interest rate is expected to rise. It was submitted to the Diet on January 24th as a bill.

Main opposite parties are supposed to oppose it. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) thinks total volume of the budget, 115 trillion yen, is too big. The leader of CDPJ, Yoshihiko Noda, is going to request cutting some policies off from the budget. Considering that the party occupies the seat of chairman of Committee for Budget, Noda hopes to have a hearing from former accounting manager of Abe faction of the LDP, who had been involved in the kickback scandal of political fund, before the committee passes the budget bill.

The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) is frustrated with dismissal of their request for raising threshold of annual income for imposing income tax from 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million yen. The LDP decided it to be set at 1.23 million yen last December. The DPP is going to oppose the budget bill unless the threshold will further be raised.

Japan Innovation Party, or Nippon Ishin-no Kai, focuses on introducing a free education system. Although the party proposed tuition-free of high schools starting this April, the leading coalition is negative on that policy. Ishin does not show any attitude to vote for the budget bill unless their free education policy will be accepted. The leading coalition does not have any hope to pass the budget bill so far. It needs to find some votes enough to pass it in the Lower House by mid-February.

Political ethics is still a critical issue for the LDP. The opposition parties require prohibition of donation from companies and organizations. According to the agreement with opposition parties in last Diet session, the LDP needs to conclude this issue by the end of March. Ishiba still believes that the donation from companies is indispensable income of the LDP.

After the Diet session, the House of Councillors will have an election in which one half of all the members will be elected. Ishiba needs to raise the approval rate for him by the end of this session. 150 days may not be enough to boost his administration.

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