Voters Give a Blow to Kishida Administration

Voters showed firm rejection against Fumio Kishida administration and the Liberal Democratic Party. In three by-elections of the House of Representatives on April 28, LDP lost all its seats. The Constitutional Democratic Party won all of those three districts.

The results reflected public frustration against Kishida’s handlings on the slush fund scandal in LDP factions and LDP’s slow progress in political reform. The elections became a significant blow to Kishida’s strategy for maintaining his administration.

 

By-election in district of Shimane-1 was held after the death of former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hiroyuki Hosoda, who had been the head of Seiwa-kai, or Abe faction. In one-on-one match, Akiko Kamei of CDP defeated Norimasa Nishikori of LDP with a margin of 25 thousand of votes. It was almost the same margin when Hosoda defeated Kamei in last election in 2021. It means that swing voters who voted for Hosoda three years ago shifted to Kamei.

 

It was the first time for LDP to lose in Shimane 1, since current election system was introduced in 1996. Although LDP Shimane branch has been split since the gubernatorial election in 2019, the result of by-election is interpreted as a protest of LDP supporters against Kishida’s indecisive handlings on the slush fund scandal.

 

The by-election in Tokyo-15 district was set after former LDP Representative, Mito Kakizawa, stepped down after he was arrested and indicted with suspect of bribery in a mayoral election of Koto city, Tokyo. While LDP abandoned raising a candidate in the by-election, it became a contest by nine candidates of the opposition parties.

 

The race was won by CDP candidate, Natsumi Sakai, with support of Japan Communist Party. It made an example that election cooperation between CDP and JCP can work with absence of LDP candidate. Japan Innovation Party, or Nippon Ishin, resulted in third position. Another candidate supported by popular governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, was the fifth.

 

District of Nagasaki-3 had been held by Yaichi Tanigawa who resigned as a lawmaker after he was indicted with charge of secretly receiving over 40 million yen from Abe faction. The by-election was to fulfill his seat. CDP’s Katsuhiko Yamada seized the seat with votes two times more than Ishin’s candidate. The result of Tokyo-15 and Nagasaki-3 indicated that voters who defied LDP went to CDP, not Ishin.

 

Although LDP did not raise a candidate in two districts out of three, the results were recognized as LDP’s defeat in three elections. Defeat in Shimane-1 especially was a significant blow to Kishida administration. Kishida unusually joined the campaign in Shimane-1 for two times, appealing support for the candidate and LDP to the voters. The defeat may have harmed Kishida’s reputation as the election leader.

 

The results of by-elections shocked LDP lawmakers who will be forced close race against the opposition parties. They will firmly be against early call of a snap election by Kishida. If Kishida tries to call it in June, a movement in LDP to replace Kishida will be accelerated. They will look for a leader who can reduce the number of victims under the unpopular leader in next election.

 

However, despite bitter defeats in by-elections, there has not appeared clear movement in LDP to replace Kishida so far. It must have been the leaders of Abe faction, who would raise voices of questioning Kishida’s leadership. But they are all inactive, since they were posed severe penalties of the slush fund scandal.

 

While some moves were reported around Motegi or former Premier Yoshihide Suga, they have not grown as a big movement. But it is likely that some will ignite the movement against Kishida, as the party heads to the presidential election in the fall.

 

Even the CDP cannot be optimistic about the next general election. Three victories were caused by LDP’s errors, and building framework of electoral cooperation is indispensable for replacing LDP administration. The Head of CDP, Kenta Izumi, once told that it would take five years for CDP to achieve a regime change in last November. It is necessary for Izumi to build up a strategy to replace LDP in next general election.