Seeking Next Move after Defeat

In the three by-elections held on April 28th, the Liberal Democratic Party suffered from miserable defeats in all districts. However, there is no obvious movement in LDP to replace their president, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. There actually is an argument that LDP lawmakers will face a great disaster in next general election of the House of Representatives under the leadership of Kishida. Frustration is prevalent in the ruling party, which is heading to the presidential election this fall.

“I seriously take the results of by-elections,” said Kishida to the reporters in the morning of April 30th. “The scandal on political funds of LDP affected very much in the elections. I am sorry for the candidates and their supporters.” Kishida insisted his efforts for reform of his party, political reform and economic issues such as wage or price hike to restore public confidence, denying any specific thought of calling snap election.

 

There has been a speculation before the by-elections that Kishida might be calling a snap election at the end of current ordinary session of the Diet in June to get a momentum for his reelection in the presidential election in September. But, the result of the by-elections has blown that idea away, because it would cause a great number of victims in the election. According to a report of Yomiuri Shimbun, Kishida revealed his uneasiness on the political situation. “If we had a general election of the House of Representatives now, there may be a regime change.”

 

The defeat in Shimane-1 district, which was an only district in the House of Representatives where LDP has been maintaining the seat since current election system started in 1996, was a fatal blow to LDP. Asahi Shimbun reported a “melt down” in Shimane, in which even the local campaign leaders were not willing to support LDP, frustrated with the slush fund scandal or obscure relationship with former Unification Church, and indecisive response of LDP leaders to those problems.

 

Nevertheless, no LDP leader shows any move to replace Kishida. Asahi raised two reasons. One is dissolution of factions. Led by Kishida’s announcement of dissolving his faction, other factions decided to follow Kishida. As the result, there is no longer the core of political movement for replacing the party leader, which has been a typical role of LDP factions.

 

Another is headwinds against LDP, which can be stronger than unpopularity of Kishida. In Shimane-1 district, the number of votes achieved by LDP and Constitutional Democratic Party were replaced. It proved that voters for LDP can shift to CDP even in a long-time stronghold of LDP such as Shiname-1. Further internal struggle over the leader’s position will exacerbate current situation against LDP.

 

“It is not a temporary storm in Shimane. Next election will be very hard one for us, if we do not research what is going on,” said Shigeru Ishiba, the top possible candidate in the polls as the replacement of Kishida. Replacement may not be the only prescription for ailing LDP.

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