A Lot of Disappearing Local Communities

A conference of experts named Population Strategy Council released its report on the forecast of local communities which would disappear with depopulation. According to the report, 744 local governments out of all 1,729 all over Japan are possibly incapable of maintaining its community as independent cities, towns or villages. It indicated that the policies of national government for revitalizing local communities have not worked well.

The council was established in July 2023, concerning acceleration of low birth rate and concentration of population in Tokyo area. The chairman of the council is Akio Mimura, former chairman of Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the vice-chairman is Hiroya Masuda, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications.

 

The council defined “a local community possibly disappears” as decreasing population of women in the age between 20 and 39 by 50% or more in thirty years from 2020 to 2050. It is based on a notion that depopulation will not be stopped, if young people cannot have children even how they wanted.

 

The report emphasized warnings for “black hole type” of communities, which collect population from other area. Some urban communities show decrease of birth rate, even though they increase the population. Some cities in Tokyo marked low total fertility rate below 1, while average of Japan is 1.3.

 

The same kind of report had been released by another council headed by Masuda in 2014. Ten years ago, the communities possibly disappearing were 896. The council added 99 communities as disappearing, while 239 have got rid of that situation. The report indicated that the measures of local communities against depopulation tended to deal with social decrease of population too much. “There has been no change in the trend of low birth rate at all,” told Masuda in a panel discussion held in Tokyo.

 

So what kind of measures should be taken by the governments? The report concluded that it depends on the situation of each local community. It recommends mixed measures both for social increase (migration) and natural increase (new birth). Needless to say, measures for depopulation are always mixture of the both. The problem is that local communities cannot find appropriate policy they should take.

 

Fumio Kishida administration focuses on tackling low birth rate, introducing policies for supporting parents for raising kids. There is a discussion that it is not about financial support for parents, but about how young people can be hopeful for their future in which they secure comfortable amount of income and married with someone they like and establish new family. As a result of growth-oriented policy and leaving social security behind, more people cannot afford to have ordinary life with families.

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