Weak Strategy of Opposition Party

Constitutional Democratic Party held its annual national convention on Sunday. The head of party, Kenta Izumi, set a goal to take administration in next general election of House of Representatives. It is fundamentally skeptical that he upheld that goal based on any consultation with other opposition parties. There is no perspective so far that the structure of inter-party cooperation for next election will be built up so soon. It is possible that Izumi has simply talked about his hope.

“We need to oust Liberal Democratic Party, which heavily relies on power of money, from politics of Japan,” said Izumi in his speech at the conference. The approval rate of Fumio Kishida administration is marking the lowest since LDP returned to administration since 2012, facing broad criticisms on slush fund scandal of factions. Izumi hoped to replace LDP administration.

 

However, changing administration is one thing, and taking administration is another. Izumi said that he would step down as the head, if CDP may not achieve 150 seats in next general election of House of Representatives. CDP now has 95 in the House. 150 is not an easy goal. However, the house has 465 seats, in which simple majority needs 233 or more. How is he taking administration with 150 seats?

 

Izumi revealed his idea of “cabinet for mission,” in which parties get together under the policies they can share. The policies include amendment of Political Funds Control Act, disclosure of how the lawmakers have spent the allowance from the Houses, free education, stop tax increase for expanding defense budget and unleashing subsidy for purchasing gasoline.

 

Those are apparently the list of the policies which CDP can take. There are some key policies which the opposition parties cannot share, such as constitutional amendment or abolition of consumption tax. It meant that Izumi proposed a coalition of parties after next election to fulfill the shortage of CDP seats in the House to take an administration. Japan Innovation Party and National Democratic Party are negative to join that coalition.

 

Izumi once raised a goal of taking administration within five years last November, which meant that the party would not take it next election. Party members hurled accusation to Izumi of his weakness as the top leader. Then, slush fund scandal occurred in LDP, and Izumi changed the goal into winning the administration in next general election. If CDP takes administration now, Izumi will be the next prime minister of Japan. It is reckless for a top leader to change his policy shortsightedly.

 

There will be by-elections in three districts of House of Representatives in late April. Before next general election, Izumi has to win those by-elections to promote cooperation among the opposition parties. That should be the road to take administration back from LDP and to his reelection as the head of CDP in this fall.

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