New Low in Births

Population of Japan further decreased in 2023. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released an interim report of vital statistics in 2023, which marked the record low of new birth, 758,631. On the other hand, deaths increased to 1,590,503, hitting the record high. Population in Japan naturally declined by 831,872 in 2023, which was the greatest number in history. Policy of Fumio Kishida administration, which focuses on dealing with low birth, has not been working at all, so far.

Births decreased by 41,097 in 2023, which was 5.14% of decline from 2022. In 2022, the decreasing rate was 5.12%, meaning acceleration of speed of decline. While the ratio of decrease was 8.8% between 2010 and 2016, it jumped up to 21.1% between 2016 and 2022. The number of deaths increased for three consecutive years and marked the record high in 2023. Deaths exceeded births for seventeen consecutive years.

 

The greatest cause of low birth is decrease of marriage. Only 489,281 couples got married in 2023, sinking below 500 thousand for the first time in the post-war era. It was 1933 when the number of marriages sank below 500 thousand in the latest. At the time, the population of Japan was 67 million, a half size of current Japan, and the births were over two million in that prolific society. 187,798 couples divorced, increasing by 2.6% from last year.

 

One of the reasons of decrease of marriage is pandemic. During three years of prevalence of COVID-19, 166 thousand of marriage have been lost. However, structural element of decreased marriage is recognized as low expectation of young people to marriage. It is estimated that young people would not be interested in having and raising a child in their life.

 

Kishida administration formulated “Child Future Strategy” last December, which listed up measures of government for raising birth rate in Japan. The strategy raised three basic concepts: increasing income of young workers, changing structure and mindset in society as a whole and supporting every household which has a child. However, it is obscure in the strategy how they are going to increase marriages.

 

The government plans to accumulate a new budget for supporting parents to raise child with ¥600 billion in FY 2026, ¥800 billion in FY 2027 and ¥1 trillion in FY 2028. They are introducing further support for families with a college student. But there is no solution in the strategy on how young people can do to get married. Although the people in the government are good at mathematics to deal with money, they have not introduced in the plan a viable measures to improve the condition of labor for young people. Unmarried workers among part-time labor force are tend to stay single for years, making contrast with regular workers.

 

“The six years to 2030 is the last chance for us to reverse the trend of low birth rate,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, in his press conference. It is not the analysis, but practical measures for encouraging marriage for young people, that is required to the government.