Record Low, But Still Stands

Newspapers released the result of February polls. The approval rates of Cabinet led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hit a new lowest since his administration embarked on October, 2021. When the approval rate showed a little boost last month, it was speculated that the decline of unpopularity for Kishida hit a bottom. But it was not the case. Although this unpopularity is worth replacing the leader for ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida still enjoy his luck of having no viable contender. 

The latest poll of Nikkei Shimbun marked 25%, declined 6 points from January, of the approval rate of Kishida Cabinet, which was the lowest for Kishida administration. In the previous week, the poll of other newspapers also showed the lowest. Mainichi Shimbun reported 14% (-7) as Yomiuri Shimbun did 24% (±0) and Asahi Shimbun did 21% (-2).

 

The support for LDP also decreased. It was 25% (-6) in Nikkei, 24% (-1) in Yomiuri, 21% (-3) in Asahi and 16% (-7) in Mainichi. They were the lowest numbers in each poll since LDP returned to the administration in 2012.

 

The greatest reason of decline of Kishida’s approval rate was that he did not exercise his leadership in explaining about the slush fund scandal of LDP. 78% answered that they would not evaluate Kishida’s handlings of the scandal in Nikkeipoll. On the question whether the leaders of LDP factions have explained enough about the scandal, 93% in Mainichi and Yomiuri or 90% in Asahi responded as “not enough.”

 

Nikkei analyzes that Kishida’s approval rate is similar to the situation in 2009, just before LDP dropped out of administration under the leadership of Prime Minister Taro Aso. At the time, approval rate of Aso Cabinet was 20% and support for LDP was 30%. The sum of both number, Cabinet and LDP, was as the same at 50%. It has been said in Japanese politics that any administration will collapse when that sum sinks under 50%.

 

Strange enough, there is no speculation that Kishida administration will collapse soon. That was because the support for the opposition parties has not risen. In Nikkei poll, the support for Constitutional Democratic Party was 9% and Innovation Party was 8%. It was 7% and 4% in Asahi poll, 5% and 4% in Yomiuri and 16% and 13% in Mainichi. There is a certain margin between LDP and the oppositions. According to the report of Nikkei, the support for Democratic Party of Japan, the biggest opposition party at the time, in 2009 was 40%, far higher than LDP.

 

If there will be an election of one of both Houses soon, there must be a movement in LDP to replace its president to show the voters a new leader of their party. Those movements had been generated in the power balance of factions. However, factions in LDP are inactive facing public criticisms, or disappeared. The big damage on LDP factions ironically help Kishida administration survive this unusual unpopularity.

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