Toward a Country of 80 Million People

Population Strategy Conference (PSC) handed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday a proposal to slowdown decrease of population of Japan, called “Population Vision 2100.” The proposal upholds the shape of Japan stably maintaining 80 million of population in the year of 2100. It is not clear why 80 million is an appropriate size of Japan and whether they have considered a possibility of maintaining current level of population. 

Established as a volunteer discussion body of experts last July, the conference has been discussing the strategy to deal with possible demographic shrink in the future. The chairman, former chairman of Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Akio Mimura, and vice chairman, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, Hiroya Masuda, handed Kishida the interim conclusion of their discussion.

 

PSC presented four models of future population of Japan. They are A) 91 million with 28% of aging rate, which means the ratio of 65 years old or higher, B) 80 million with 30%, C) 63 million with 40% and D) 51 million with 46%. In the model A, PSC assumes fast rise of total fertility rate as high as 2.07 in 2040, the level which is necessary for maintaining population. It will be staying at 1.13 in the model D.

 

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates Japan’s population in 2100 as 62.7 million. PSC proposes, picking model B, that it should be maintained at 80 million, calling it “stable maintenance strategy,” with some measures for improving employment of young people, promoting job opportunities of women and establishing supporting system for raising children, making no great difference from the policies taken by Kishida administration.

 

The proposal believes that Japan will be able to achieve further economic growth, the concept which Japanese government extremely loves, by taking “strengthening strategy” even with less population than now. It urges to raise the growth rate of productivity, which means growth of added value created by one worker, by reforming companies, industries and local communities with low productivity. It also recommends investment to human.

 

Denying policy of immigration for supplementing labor, the proposal recommends introducing skilled workers from foreign countries. It requires establishing a committee for the policies on foreigners in Japan, and urges the prime minister to have headquarters for promoting population strategy and the Diet to set up non-partisan committee to discuss population issues.

 

The vice-chairman Masuda shocked Japan in 2014 when he listed up 896 municipalities which might be disappearing with decrease of young women. There was no prescription in PSC proposal on the crisis Masuda argued ten years ago. The proposal seems to be based on a notion that decrease of population in local community will be inevitable and sounds like trying to build a new society only with productive people.

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