Yellow Light for Constitutional Amendment

One of the major political agenda of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is constitutional amendment. In his presidential campaign of Liberal Democratic Party in 2021, Kishida declared that if he would be elected, he would achieve it within his term of LDP president, which will expire in September 2024. It is commonly regarded by the lawmakers that the parties have to agree on a draft for the amendment in current extraordinary Diet session to implement his campaign resolution, but the time is running out. Now, Kishida’s seriousness is doubted.

Kishida told before the presidential election that the constitutional amendment should steadily be promoted to keep the constitution contemporary. LDP upheld four points for the amendment 2017, which was not endorsed by the party’s national convention though. Those points are writing down the existence of self-defense force in Article 9, establishing emergency clause, separating integrated electoral districts of House of Councillors, and adding a clause for educational enhancement.

 

They have mainly been a political agenda for conservative groups in LDP. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been enthusiastic on the issue. Kochikai, a faction in LDP to which Kishida affiliates to, has been known as traditionally dovish as reluctant to constitutional amendment. That is why Kishida’s determination on the issue was received as something strange. It is commonly supposed that Kishida was so unsure to win the presidential election that he tried outreach the conservative groups in LDP by showing his willingness to constitutional amendment.

 

Nevertheless, the discussion for the amendment in the Diet has been making slow progress these two years since Kishida took the office. The leading coalition of LDP and Komeito as well as some opposition parties, Japan Innovation Party and National Democratic Party are willing to wrap up the discussion. But Constitutional Democratic Party is reluctant in constitutional amendment. Japan Communist Party firmly opposes to it.

 

Current discussion in the Commission on the Constitution of House of Representatives is focused on the emergency clause. The promotors of the amendment argue that a provision for extending the term of House members is needed for the possible contingency of being invaded by a foreign country or major disaster. JIP and NDP submitted a draft to the Diet earlier this year.

 

But LDP is trying to avoid coercive showdown with two-third majority, because unmature agreement may have a negative impact on the national referendum, even if the Diet would be successful in initiating the draft of amendment. CDP argues that the clause of emergency session of the Upper House will work, if the term of the members of Lower House is expired in the contingency.

 

While asserting his willingness for constitutional amendment, Kishida has made no effective intervention in the Diet discussion on the issue. As long as the prime minister is supporting the amendment, it is not wise for the conservatives to replace him. But there are many policy agenda, including tax cut, diplomacy as the chair country of G7, in the rest of this extraordinary session of the Diet. The session will be closed in early December.