Record Low of Approval Rate

In spite of populist policy of tax cut or efforts in diplomacy, the popularity for Fumio Kishida administration shows record low. Last weekend polls marked the lowest approval rates since the Liberal Democratic Party retook the administration in 2012. “The bottom fell out of the bucket,” said some lawmakers in Liberal Democratic Party. With this unpopularity, Kishida cannot have a choice of dissolve the Lower House and have a general election. LDP may need to consider a choice of replacing Kishida, if it finds a good candidate. Japanese politics increases instability, when the world order shows historical chaos.

The poll conducted by Mainichi Shimbun revealed the approval rate for Kishida Cabinet as 21%, the lowest since Naoto Kan Cabinet marked 15% in 2011, when Japan suffered from East Japan Great Earthquake and explosion of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Disapproval against Kishida was as high as 74%, which was paralleled with the time of Taro Aso Cabinet in February 2009, when Japanese economy was in slump affected by Lehman Brothers Shock. Kishida’s unpopularity is in disastrous level.

 

Other polls showed the same trend. Yomiuri Shimbun poll marked 24% of approval and 64% of disapproval. Asahi Shimbun reported the result of its own poll as 25% of approval and 65% of disapproval. The traditionally big-three newspapers in Japan showed the similar results.

The biggest reason of decline was failing in explaining tax cut policy. Only less than thirty percent in each of three polls answered that they would evaluate the tax cut policy, and over sixty percent would not do. Kishida announced last December that he would introduce tax increase for defense budget. Then he started saying tax cut to return the benefit of economic growth this fall. Anyone would think that Kishida does not need to increase tax for defense, if he had a resource for tax cut.

 

Making matters worse, people were highly skeptical about Kishida’s word of “returning” budgetary surplus to the people. In the Diet discussion, Minister of Finance Shun-ichi Suzuki revealed that the government had no surplus for the tax cut. It is likely that newly issued government bonds will be appropriated to the tax cut. People may conclude that Kishida’s tax cut must not be a measure dealing with commodity price hike, but be a boosting tool for his administration.

 

Consecutive scandals of State Ministers and Parliamentary Vice-Ministers damage Kishida administration. While Kishida reiterated that he would take serious about his responsibility as an appointor, scandals do not stop appearing. People cannot realize how Kishida is serious about it.

 

In the visit to San Francisco for attending Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit last week, including bilateral talks with Presidents of China or United States, Kishida tried to show his handlings of diplomacy. But his diplomacy did not raise his approval rate. Kishida has narrow choices for the next move.