Abandoning Dissolution This Year

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on Thursday that he would be focusing on economic measures for the rest of this year, and thinking about nothing else. The news organizations reported all at once that Kishida gave up the dissolution of House of Representatives by the end of this year. While Kishida hopes to have a snap election before the presidential election of Liberal Democratic Party next fall, his choices are decreasing due to decline of the approval rate for his administration.

Asahi Shimbun reported Thursday morning that Kishida decided not to have the dissolution within this year, according to an anonymous source in the administration. Kishida convoked a meeting with the LDP board members in the same morning and reportedly told that “I have not said that thing.” Believing in his exclusive power to dissolve the House, Kishida did not understand why such report had been spread.

 

To make his reelection next fall sure, Kishida has always been considering when he would dissolve the House. At the last weeks of the ordinary Diet session earlier this year, his indication of possible snap election had an effect for the lawmakers to follow Kishida’s political agenda. Kishida was satisfied with his strategy having worked well for passing the important bills in the session.

 

To exercise the power of dissolving the House, however, crucial condition is possessing certain degree of public approval for the administration as much as it will bring a victory in the general election. He took some actions in this fall. In September, Kishida reshuffled his Cabinet to appeal refreshment of his team, in which he did not change the core members. He failed appointing any woman to State Ministers or Parliamentary Vice-ministers. Some members already stepped down with scandals.

 

Another was tax cut. Kishida tried to sell his tax cut as a strong measure for boosting his administration, but his leadership in LDP was not working well. Frustrated with the tax cut requiring much time for arriving to each family, members of the leading parties preferred allowance to tax cut. Economic measures announced this month resulted in the mixture of tax cut and allowance. Revealing Kishida’s lack of leadership, his approval rate kept on declining this fall.

 

His political schedule is tight in the rest of this year. The summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is being arranged for next week. Kishida needs to lead the discussion on supplemental budget for current session of the Diet. ASEAN leaders meeting will be held in Tokyo in December. The administration cannot afford to have political vacancy in November and December.

 

Yearly budget discussion in the ordinary session of the Diet is waiting for Kishida through January to March next year. It will be next April or later when he can have a chance to dissolve the House. But there is no perspective of increasing the approval rate next year. Only good news for Kishida is that no possible candidate to replace him has been appeared so far.