Takaichi’s Handling on Imperial House Law Takes Its Toll

Insistence of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on patrilinear succession to the throne of the Emperor has taken its toll. In the polls conducted by news organizations, approval rate for Takaichi Cabinet obviously declined right after revised Imperial House Law (IHL) passed the Diet. Although she tries to pass some other bills in the Diet during extra term of current session, there is no predictable event in this summer or fall, by which she can regain popularity from general voters. 

Takaichi government passed revised IHL on July 17th with approval of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan Innovation Party (JIP) and some other opposition parties. The law enables female members of the Imperial House to stay after marriage and adoption of male in the male line of former imperial families. It gives the offspring of adopted male a status of succeeding to the throne and denied imperial membership of spouse and children of female members staying in the family.

 

In the poll of Asahi Shimbun, conducted on July 18th and 19th, 60 percent of respondents thought that the revised IHL had not received understanding of the people, while 24 percent supposed that it had gotten it. The 43 percent were satisfied with the provision that sons of adopted male can succeed to the throne and 45 percent were not. Although the Emperor Naruhito hoped the revision to get “understandings” of the people, the poll indicated that the people have not understood the new law.

 

The revised IHL also blocks female members of Imperial Family to be in the line of succession to the throne. The poll proved that only 29 percent approved that provision. The percentage of the people who were not satisfied with ruling out female emperor rose to 62 percent. It is possible that the result has reflected public expectation to the succession by Emperor Naruhito’s daughter, Princess Aiko.

 

The poll reflected fundamental dissatisfaction with Takaichi’s handling of revised IHL. Approval rate for Takaichi Cabinet was 53 percent, declining by 7 percentage points from 60 percent of the previous poll in June. It was new low since Takaichi took office last October. Disapproval rate rose from 27 percent to 35 percent. Approval rate of independent voters was 36 percent, exceeded by 42 percent of disapproval.

 

The poll of Mainichi Shimbun in the same period drew further inconvenient result for Takaichi. Approval rate for Takaichi Cabinet was 41 percent, declining by 10 points from 51 percent of previous poll. Takaichi received 44 percent of disapproval, hiking by 9 points from previous 35 percent. In this poll, disapproval for Takaichi exceeded approval for the first time.

 

In Mainichi poll, 45 percent did not evaluate revised IHL, while only 19 percent did. Opposition and approval for adoption of male in the male line of former imperial family were 40 percent and 25 percent. Giving status of succeeding the throne to the son of adopted male received 41 percent of opposition and 26 percent of approval. Approval for female members’ stay in the family was 63 percent and disapproval was 10 percent.

 

Those two polls indicates that more people are supportive for a female emperor and skeptical about adoption.

 

Takaichi is going to accelerate discussion for consumption tax cut to recover her loss in the revised IHL. However, easy delivery of populist policy on tax cut may cause doubt of market on fiscal discipline of Takaichi government. Takaichi might be facing consecutive declines in approval rate.

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