Consolation Match by Five Candidates

A week after announcement of resignation by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the campaign for next president of tbe Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seems to be the race by five candidates, all of whom had lost in last election a year ago. It is likely that the race will be about how next leader can “change” the party, which is ailing with political funds reform and dealing with Diet affairs in which the LDP does not have a majority in both chambers. 

Former Secretary General, Toshimitsu Motegi, was the first who stepped forward. In his press conference to announce his candidacy, Motegi emphasized his economic policy to increase take-home pay of the people, with was resonant with argument of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Motegi referred to a possibility of building a leading coalition with the DPP or Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) to recover minority government in the Diet.

 

Former Minister for Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, and Secretary of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, take different strategy from Motegi’s. While they have made up their mind to run for the presidential election, both of them delayed announcement of candidacy to the public, taking their time to extend support in the party or to build up their policies to appeal.

 

Takaichi finished last presidential election at the second position next to Ishiba, and Koizumi at the third. Both enjoyed broad public support in the last election and are not dependent on a specific faction. Takaichi has a quite firm basis of the conservatives. Koizumi is patronized by former premier Yoshihide Suga and supported by young party members.

 

Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, has also reportedly decided to run. He is backed by elder members of former Kishiba faction, supposedly including Kishida. Former Minister on Economic Security, Takayuki Kobayashi, hopes to join the race, supported by conservative young members.

 

It is speculated that Takaichi and Koizumi will lead the race. The election, however, is not expected to be finished in the first round, in which a winner needs to gain majority of all 590 votes: 295 for lawmakers and 295 from local party members. A run-off election will be a competition over 342 votes, 295 for Diet members and 47 for each local branch. Support from lawmakers means much in the run-off.

 

If the run-off becomes a match between Takaichi and Koizumi, conservative votes, including them for Kobayashi, is going to Takaichi. For Koizumi, how to get votes of supporters for Ishiba will be the key to win. Because Koizumi urged Ishiba to make decision of stepping down, it is not sure that Ishiba’s allies will be supportive for Koizumi. Koizumi seems to have advantage to have close relationship with the leader of Ishin, Hirofumi Yoshimura. Takaichi expects cooperation with conservative parties, such as Sanseito.

 

Motegi and Hayashi rely on power of former factions. Motegi expects support from Aso, who owns only one remaining faction in the LDP. As the deputy in the prime minister’s office, Hayashi expects support from Ishiba. But the presidential election last year proved that factions, including Aso faction, do not work as a unit in the voting as it faced public criticisms on old-type politics in the LDP.

 

The opposition parties accuse the LDP of creating political vacancy for electing successor of Ishiba. Encouraged by public opinion that replacement of Ishiba would not raise credibility of the LDP, the leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, degraded this LDP presidential election as “a consolation match” of privious election a year ago.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

LDP Kickoffs Presidential Election

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)   kicked off  its presidential election campaign on September 22 and five lawmakers officially submitted their candidacy to the party. Having lost majority in both Houses of the Diet under the leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the presidential election should be about how to regain power through reform of the party. Nevertheless, the candidates do not talk much about the reform, rather focusing on economic policies for the people or maneuvers to attract the opposition parties.   Those five candidates are former Minister on Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former Minister on Economic Security Sanae Takaichi and Miniser of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi.   Kobayashi insists on temporary income tax cut with a fixed rate, which return is bigger for high-income taxpayers than them with low-income. Identifying h...
Read more

BOJ Begins to Sell ETF

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to keep its short-term rate at 0.5 percent in its Monetary Policy Meeting on September 19 th . While it had been expected that the bank would not change the policy rate in the meeting, the meeting unanimously agreed on beginning to sell exchange-traded funds (ETF). Although the policy reflected the bank’s determination for normalizing its monetary policy, the Governor of JOB, Kazuo Ueda, predicted that it would take a hundred years to release all the ETF it possesses. While the BOJ started buying ETF, a financial product which is equivalent to investment trust, in 2010, the bank abruptly increased its quantity of purchase in 2013, under the leadership of then governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, who exchanged an accord with Shinzo Abe administration to cooperate to get rid of deflation and to achieve stable economic growth. The amount of ETF bought by the BOJ has reached 37 trillion yen.   Purchase of ETF by a central bank has been recognized as a prohibited m...
Read more

Dilemma between Alliance and Constitution

  In the new year ministerial online meeting, Japan and United States resolved to work together to deal with various challenges by China. In the Joint Statement of the Security Consultative Committee, or “2+2,” the ministers of both government, US Secretaries of State and Defense and Japanese Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense, expressed their concerns on Beijing’s efforts, which were recognized as undermining the rule-based order in Indo-Pacific region and the world. On possible countermeasures, however, there still is a possibility of constitutional dispute in Japan over the principle of exclusively defensive security policy. The ministers referred to their concern about China’s activities in the East and the West China Sea. They reaffirmed to apply Article V of US-Japan Treaty of mutual Cooperation and Security to the Senkaku Islands, and strongly objected to China’s unlawful maritime claims, militarization and coercive activities in the South China Sea. They did not forge...
Read more