Estimated Deaths in Great Earthquake Do Not Decrease Much

An experts’ group of Central Disaster Management Council in the government of Japan published updated estimation on possible great earthquake occurring around Nankai Trough Sea on March 31st. The report of the council predicts 298,000 deaths and 2.35 million collapses of buildings. Although the government has been taking necessary measures to reduce damages from Nankai Trough Great Earthquake, the report showed that the effort has not reached a goal. 

Nankai Trough is a fault located off the southern coast of Japan, with length of 900 kilometers extending from Suruga Bay, Shizuoka, to Hyuga-nada Sea, Miyazaki. In plate tectonics, Philippine Sea Plate is subducts beneath Eurasia Plate at Nankai Trough, causing great earthquakes once in 100 or 150 years. The government of Japan announced earlier this year that possibility of a great earthquake around Nankai Trough within 30 years would be 80 percent.

 

The council estimated the worst damage of Nankai Trough Great Earthquake with magnitude 9 may occur in the midnight of winter season. It causes up to 34 meters high of tsunami in the cities of Kochi prefecture, and 1,151 square kilometers of land will be soaked in 30 centimeters high of tsunami, which may cause fatal damage on the people.

 

Economic damage brought by the great earthquake will be amounting to 292 trillion yen. It includes damages on production and assets in private companies, or public infrastructure such as railroad or waterworks. Major cities will suffer from significant damages. It is supposed that 43 thousand people will not be able to get back home around Nagoya Station, if degree 6 or stronger quake hit the region.

 

The government estimated in 2014 that Nankai Trough Great Earthquake would cause 332,000 deaths and 2.5 million buildings of breakdown. The government then planned to reduce the estimation by 80 percent in deaths and 50 percent of collapses of buildings within ten years. New estimation, however, showed that the plan has not been implemented by taking necessary measures for disaster prevention.

 

The report revealed the ratio of houses with anti-quake measures has improved from 79 percent in 2008 to 90 percent in 2023. It is supposed that the damage will be reduced by 70 percent, if the ratio grows from 90 percent to 100 percent. Embankment of coastal area was raised from 39 percent in 2014 to 65 percent in 2021, which is not recognized as necessarily high.

 

The report estimated related deaths, such as deaths in evacuation, would be between 26 thousand and 52 thousand. It is indispensable for each local government to prepare for evacuation from home for a certain period of time. The report insists that it would be important for each person to maintain firm determination for escaping from tsunami, even if the estimation was desperately severe.

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