Polls Show Three Leading Runners

Polls conducted by news organizations showed top three contenders in presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party: former Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, former Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi and Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi. While the order was drawn by public popularity, it is usual that LDP presidential election brings different result. It is still unclear how the race is going.

To the question about who would be preferable for next president of the LDP, 21 percent of the responders answered it would be Ishiba, and another 21 percent upheld Koizumi in the poll of Asahi Shimbun. Takaichi followed them with 8 percent. Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa and Minister for Digital Affairs Taro Kono received 6 percent, and Former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi got 5 percent.

 

LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, former Minister on Measures for Declining Birth Rate Seiko Noda, Chief Cabinet Secretary (CCS) Yoshimasa Hayashi, former CCS Katsunobu Kato and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ken Saito sank in lower single digit.

 

Among the responders, supporters for the LDP raised Koizumi to the apparent top position. Koizumi achieved 28 percent of support from LDP supporters, leaving Ishiba behind with 23 percent and Takaichi with 12 percent. Kono, Kamikawa, Kobayashi and others remained in the single digit.

 

Polls by Yomiuri Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun showed mostly the same results. The top three was occupied by Ishiba (22 percent), Koizumi (20 percent) and Takaichi (10 percent) in Yomiuri. The margin between Ishiba and Koizumi was bigger in Mainichi with 29 percent and 16 percent. However, Koizumi overtook Ishiba among the LDP supporters in Yomiuri, and caught up with 1 percent point margin in Mainichi.

 

It indicated that Koizumi can be the best choice for LDP supporters. But the presidential election is voted not by “suppporters” but by LDP members who has registered to the party. The LDP has 1.09 million members at the end of 2023. The votes of those members are proportionally distributed into 367 votes, which is the same amount of votes for LDP members of the Diet

 

If the winner is not determined in the first round of election, the runoff ballot will be taken place by two of leading candidates in the first round. While the lawmakers have 367 votes, ordinary party members have only 47 votes which are distributed to each of 47 prefectural branches. It is not unusual for the winner in the first round is defeated in the second round with coalition of other candidates.

 

It is likely that internal struggle over the votes until the voting day on September 27. Although bribing for the votes, which had been usual in the previous presidential elections, cannot be tolerated in this election with reflection of slush fund scandal, the candidates and their colleagues will collect votes with offering some posts in cabinet or party leaders for the future. Everything can happen until the winner is determined in the election.

 

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